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Fanball MLB Triple Play – May 20, 2019

May 20, 2019 by Doug Shain

Did you know that on even a ten game MLB slate, there are approximately 250 TRILLION lineup combinations you can make? To be able to hit on the 1 lineup out of those combinations is harder than winning the lottery. A reduced player pool, though, can give you a significant advantage by reducing the possible lineup combinations you can make. If we limit our choices to only 5 players per position (a few extra for OF), you now have far fewer possible lineup combinations you can make (pricing helps reduce this number even lower). Sure, it’s still a lot of lineup choices (in the millions) but it’s only .000008% of the total possible lineup combinations everyone else is working with. That is a SIGNIFICANT advantage for you if you’re choosing from a strong reduced player pool. That’s where we come in to help.

Bankster DFS, The Home of the Reduced Player Pool, has teamed up with Fanball to give you a daily sneak peak of three of the plays we have included in our Bankster DFS reduced player pool. We aren’t lineup sellers; we write full articles that explain which players we like, why we like those players, and how we like to build our teams. We are a learning site more than anything, and you can see that in heavy member interaction on our various Slack Chat channels (we have one for every sport that we cover – NBA, AAF, NFL, NHL, MLB, EPL, PGA, MMA, CBB, WWE, sports betting, and Best Ball 10’s). You can get the rest of our reduced player pool, our daily articles, our members only slack chat, and Fanball exclusives with a Bankster DFS membership. That membership costs only $2.99/wk and you get everything mentioned above with it. You can contact me about membership on Twitter @bankster17 or sign up for service here.

Let’s look at the MLB Triple Play for Monday, May 20

Shoutout to my mom, it’s her birthday today. I won’t say how old she is (I’m a gentleman), but let’s just say it’ll be a “nice” year. These picks are made in her honor.

On The Hill (Starting Pitcher): Mike Soroka (ATL/RHP) at San Francisco Giants

I try not to get too cute with my picks, but sometimes it’s super boring for you and for me to keep writing about the most expensive pitcher on the slate. Yes, Patrick Corbin ia great play today. Yes, you should definitely be playing him in cash games. But you know what? Mike Soroka has been pretty darned legit since finding a spot in the Braves rotation. His worst game was two starts ago when he went 6IP/4K/1ER. An average start for Soroka this year has been about 6IP/6K/2BB and 0.67 ER per game (yes, he’s given up less ER than games started). Today he faces the Giants, who own a .227 AVG and .400 SLG against RHP. Both of those numbers are in the bottom ten in MLB. San Francisco is far worse at home with a .210 AVG and .336 SLG; only the Pirates are more inept at home. AT&T Park is a very pitcher-friendly environment, and given the Giants struggles at the plate I feel very comfortable using Soroka in both cash and GPP lineups.

Starting Nine (Stack of the Day): New York Yankees (at David Hess- BAL/RHP):

Remember when David Hess kinda, sorta threw a no-hitter at Toronto way back in his second start of the year (6.1 IP/0 hits)? That was a fun time, but it was also a total fluke. Since that game he has given up 14 HR in 32 innings pitched (3.9 HR/9). Half of those home runs, HALF, have come against the Yankees in only 13 IP. A lot of the players who he faced in those games aren’t currently active for NYY (since he’s given up “only” 5 HR to the current roster), but that doesn’t mean we can’t jump all over Hess anyway. Kendrys Morales has been a nice addition to the Yankees and he’s likely to get the start in this game. He comes very cheap and has a great history against Hess with a .538 AVG and 3 HR in 13 AB. He’s a lock for my cash games today and any Yankees stack I make in a GPP. Luke Voit is far more expensive, but if you can fit him you should as he is 3 for 4 against Hess with a HR. Gleyber Torres and Aaron Hicks have combined for a .423 AVG and 4 XBH in 26 AB against Hess. Torres is smoking hot right now with a .368 AVG and 6 XBH over his last ten games, while Hicks is 3 for 8 in his last two games after coming out of the gate cold for his first two games of the season after a return from injury. Gio Urshela is a little banged up, but if he plays he has a .333 AVG over his last ten games and won’t break your bank. I could make a strong argument that a Yankees stack is your top option on this slate, and I definitely want to get some exposure (Morales/Torres is optimal) in cash games.

Pinch Hitter (HuLo play): Jason Castro (MIN/C at Felix Pena – LAA/RHP)
Few bats are hotter than the Twins right now. As a team they are averaging about 8 runs per game over the last week, with a .305 AVG and .571 SLG (both top four in the majors over the last week). Sure, those numbers are aided a little bit by their 18 run explosion on the Mariners Saturday night, but even if you take that game out they are still averaging over 6 runs per game over the last week. Surprisingly, the highest SLG on the team against righties is actually Jason Castro (.722 SLG), aided by 11 XBH in only 54 AB. He has been a real find at the catcher position, and if you want to spend a little bit down over a guy like Gary Sanchez or JT Realmuto, then Castro is a name you should be looking at.

Riding the Pine (Fade of the Day): Chris Paddack (SD/RHP vs Arizona Diamondbacks)
I really like the long term outlook for Paddack, but there is one metric that has been nagging at us all year at Bankster DFS. His fly ball rate, outside of one start, is hovering around 50% and that can be dangerous against a team like the Diamondbacks. In his last start he was touched up a bit by the Dodgers, giving up 2 HR and 3 ER in 4.2 IP. Those numbers aren’t awful, but with a young kid like this you never know if they are a blip on the radar or a sign of negative regression. Paddack could come out and give us 7IP/9K, but if he keeps getting the ball in the air it could be very bad against Arizona. They have scored over 6 runs per game and are fourth in the majors with a .515 SLG over the last week. I just don’t see a need to take a chance in a cash game with a guy like Paddack when you can use Patrick Corbin or Mike Soroka in better spots. In a GPP I’d be fine with this play but I’m going with a hard fade in cash.

Don’t forget that you can access the rest of our Reduced Player Pool as a Bankster DFS member. $2.99 per week gets you access to all the content we produce for all the sports we cover, our members only Slack Chat, and exclusive Fanball bonuses. Contact me @bankster17 or you can sign up for a membership here. Thank you for checking our our Fanball MLB Triple Play. You can find us here every day throughout the MLB season.

Fanball MLB Triple Play – May 19, 2019

May 19, 2019 by Doug Shain

Let’s look at the MLB Triple Play for Sunday, May 19

On The Hill (Starting Pitcher): Chris Sale (BOS/LHP) vs Houston Astros

There are four high end pitchers to consider today: Sale, Noah Syndergaard, Charlie Morton, and Hyun-Jin Ryu. The only one that I’m outright fading is Syndergaard because he’s still not totally right, the Marlins don’t get blown away by him (.286 AVG and 29% K-rate), and he should be chalk. That’s exactly the kind of combination of factors that would lead me to a hard fade in a GPP on a pitcher. I like Morton and Ryu just fine, but neither are pitching in a great environment (Morton at Yankee Stadium and Ryu at Great American Ballpark) and all things being equal I’d rather shoot for the upside that Sale brings rather than Morton and Ryu. I also think that it’s quite possible that both of those guys carry a higher ownership given that the Yankees and Reds are not nearly as strong of offenses as the Astros. For my money Chris Sale is the top end pitcher I want to target in a GPP today. He has a rough matchup against a hot Houston offense, but that should only serve to lower his ownership (something I love in a GPP). When Sale gets hot he’s damned near untouchable and that’s where he is at the moment. Over his last three starts he has a 1.29 ERA and 41 strikeouts in 21 innings (a mind-blowing 17.6 K/9). On Fanball, where runs against don’t count, he’s even more valuable since you know he’s getting a ton of innings and a high K total. I don’t care who he is facing, when Sale is pitching like he is right now you have to ride him. He has legitimate 12 strikeout upside, and there’s not a pitcher in baseball other than him who you can say that about. I may not want to roll him out in this matchup in a cash game (Ryu and Morton may be more appealing given their price points), but in a GPP I’m shooting for upside, and Chris Sale IS upside.

Starting Nine (Stack of the Day): Texas Rangers (vs Jack Flaherty- STL/RHP):

What? You thought I’d come off the Rangers after they disappointed us all in a smash spot yesterday? Shoot, to me that makes them even more desirable today because a jilted fantasy owner rarely goes back for a second helping the next day. Remember, we are looking at a GPP lineup today so I want a team that can go HuLo (High upside, Low ownership) to the max. There is no team on the slate with a higher upside than the Rangers. They absolute rake at Globe Life Park, and that makes a ton of sense since it’s the second best hitting environment in the majors outside of Denver. Jack Flaherty may be a future Cy Young award winner, but he’s struggled outside of St Louis this year. His road ERA is nearly FIVE RUNS PER GAME higher on the road (7.23) vs at home (2.48). He has given up the same number of road HR (4) as he has at home in almost two thirds the innings (a 2.0 HR/9 on the road). I’m going to target lefties against Flaherty since he has a .207 BAA against right-handed batters, but a .272 BAA vs lefties. That means we are going to be stacking Willie Calhoun (.474 AVG/.842 vs RHP in 19 AB since his call-up), Shin-Soo Choo (.307 AVG/.551 SLG vs RHP), and Joey Gallo (.277 AVG/.663 SLG vs RHP). Smash, boom, money.

Pinch Hitter (HuLo play): Stephen Piscotty (OAK/OF at Gregory Soto – DET/LHP)
Two starts, two times we have stacked against Soto; why not make it three, right? It looks like Soto will only get a couple of innings, but he’ll be followed by Nick Ramirez (another lefty) so our right-handed bats should be just fine in this one. I probably will not go all the way with an A’s stack (I want my main exposure to be on TEX/MIL) but there are pieces here that I think can work really well for us. One of those pieces is Stephen Piscotty. He has hit LHP hard this year, to the tune of a .367 AVG/.633 SLG. He has a .348 AVG over the last week, so he’s locked in right now. This is a great spot for him, and at only $4300 he’s got the potential to totally crush his price point.

Riding the Pine (Fade of the Day): Mike Foltynewicz (ATL/RHP vs Milwaukee Brewers)
Perhaps Folty came back too early because he looks nothing like the guy who was a CY Young contender last year. He has an 8.02 ERA and 3.4 HR/9 in his four starts this year. There is literally nothing about those four starts that gives me a reason to believe that he’s trending in the right direction. 3.4 BB/9? Nah, not all that good. 5.9 K/9? Gross! A 59% fly ball rate? Um, against Milwaukee that could be death. The Brewers are sixth in baseball with 59 HR against RHP this season. As a team they have a career .339 AVG/.532 SLG in 62 AB against Folty. It’s a small sample but Foltynewicz actually has been hit harder by righties (.354 AVG) than lefties (.225 AVG), and MIL is loaded with talent on both sides of the plate. Don’t get cute; this isn’t the start where Foltynewicz magically turns it around.