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Fanball MLB Triple Play – May 21, 2019

May 21, 2019 by Doug Shain

Did you know that on even a ten game MLB slate, there are approximately 250 TRILLION lineup combinations you can make? To be able to hit on the 1 lineup out of those combinations is harder than winning the lottery. A reduced player pool, though, can give you a significant advantage by reducing the possible lineup combinations you can make. If we limit our choices to only 5 players per position (a few extra for OF), you now have far fewer possible lineup combinations you can make (pricing helps reduce this number even lower). Sure, it’s still a lot of lineup choices (in the millions) but it’s only .000008% of the total possible lineup combinations everyone else is working with. That is a SIGNIFICANT advantage for you if you’re choosing from a strong reduced player pool. That’s where we come in to help.

Bankster DFS, The Home of the Reduced Player Pool, has teamed up with Fanball to give you a daily sneak peak of three of the plays we have included in our Bankster DFS reduced player pool. We aren’t lineup sellers; we write full articles that explain which players we like, why we like those players, and how we like to build our teams. We are a learning site more than anything, and you can see that in heavy member interaction on our various Slack Chat channels (we have one for every sport that we cover – NBA, AAF, NFL, NHL, MLB, EPL, PGA, MMA, CBB, WWE, sports betting, and Best Ball 10’s). You can get the rest of our reduced player pool, our daily articles, our members only slack chat, and Fanball exclusives with a Bankster DFS membership. That membership costs only $2.99/wk and you get everything mentioned above with it. You can contact me about membership on Twitter @bankster17 or sign up for service here.

Let’s look at the MLB Triple Play for Tuesday, May 21

Shoutout to my mom, it’s her birthday today. I won’t say how old she is (I’m a gentleman), but let’s just say it’ll be a “nice” year. These picks are made in her honor.

On The Hill (Starting Pitcher): Caleb Smith (MIAL/LHP) at Detroit Tigers

The price may keep going up, but we just can’t quit Caleb Smith at Bankster DFS. He has been so good this year no matter who he has faced, no matter where he has faced them. He has 6+ strikeouts in every start this year; 8+ K’s in all but two starts. He hasn’t given up more than 3 ER in any start this year, and he’s only done that once; every other start has seen him give up 2 ER or less. He also has thrown 6+ innings in six of eight starts. There are three things you want from your pitcher on Fanball: innings, strikeouts, and QS. Smith has consistently been getting those. Today he may be on the road, but he’s on the road against a Tigers team that has struck out 30% of the time against LHP. Even if he was facing a tougher opponent I’d still want to have Smith in my lineup, and on a night where big names like Justin Verlander and Clayton Kershaw take the hill it’s likely that we see a low ownership on Smith as well. I’m all in on that. Cash, GPP, head to head….give me Smith in any of those formats.

Starting Nine (Stack of the Day): St Louis Cardinals (vs Homer Bailey- KC/RHP):

If you like BvP (I love BvP) then this is the matchup for you. The Cardinals, as a team, have a ridiculous .368 AVG/1.030 OPS against Homer Bailey in 204 AB (29 XBH). That’s a really high number for a small sample size, but to get that kind of production over a sustained period of time like 200 AB, well geez that’s a strong indication of how this game is going to go. As much as I have liked Bailey all year, he kind of crashed back to Earth his last start with a 4IP/5ER with as many BB (4) as strikeouts (4). Add that to the BvP he’s facing and I think we can comfortably load up on Cardinals bats in a GPP (and pick and choose for some cash game exposure). Matt Carpenter (45 AB) and Yadier Molina (50 AB) have the most experience against Bailey; both of them are sitting at a .400+ AVG and have combined for 11 XBH in those 95 AB. I would say that they are the names I’d be most interested in for cash games. Paul DeJong (.429 AVG/4 XBH in 14 AB), Jose Martinez (.467 AVG/3 XBH in 15 AB), and Kolten Wong (.353 AVG/3 XBH in 17 AB) are the other names who have crushed Bailey in the past as well. Obviously if you’re stacking, Paul Goldschmidt and Marcell Ozuna have to be in the discussion as well. I’d wait to see how the lineup shakes out for STL and then look to stack somewhere within 1-6 in the lineup.

Pinch Hitter (HuLo play): Jose Abreu (CWS/1B at Justin Verlander – HOU/RHP)
At Bankster DFS we love the concept of the double whammy. That’s where we use a low-owned bat against a high-owned pitcher. The thought is that you’ll move up a leaderboard twice as fast when your hitter not only gets you points, but when it also hurts that chalky pitcher. Now I know that on Fanball runs don’t count against pitchers, but if Abreu can help keep Justin Verlander from getting a QS, or a win, or even some extra innings then I still consider that a win for us. In his career, Abreu has mashed Verlander to the tune of a .366 AVG with 7 XBH (5 HR) in 41 AB. One thing I’ve noticed about Abreu is that when he has a strong BvP against a pitcher, he almost always comes through when we use him. I’ll count on that today as a HuLo option in my riskier GPP lineups.

Riding the Pine (Fade of the Day): Clayton Kershaw (LAD/LHP at Tampa Bay Rays)
Once again it’s time to hop aboard #teamfadekershaw. I started that movement years ago and continue to conduct that train to this day. Look, I love Kershaw as a player and he’s been a true joy to have on season long teams over his career. I also think that, at this stage of his career, his reputations far outweighs his actual production. On a site where innings, strikeouts, and QS are your main categories I don’t know if I want to spend all the way up for a pitcher averaging 6IP/5K over his last three starts. He’s just not the consistent 7IP/9K pitcher he was a few years ago. Could he come out and rip the Rays for those kinds of numbers? Of course he could, but so could any pitcher. We want to focus on what’s “most likely” to happen and that high level of production is no longer what is most likely to happen. I’d be far happier to pay up a little to spend up a bit for Verlander or down for Caleb Smith. I don’t see any scenario where I’d be comfortable with Clayton Kershaw given the other options.

Don’t forget that you can access the rest of our Reduced Player Pool as a Bankster DFS member. $2.99 per week gets you access to all the content we produce for all the sports we cover, our members only Slack Chat, and exclusive Fanball bonuses. Contact me @bankster17 or you can sign up for a membership here. Thank you for checking our our Fanball MLB Triple Play. You can find us here every day throughout the MLB season.

Fanball MLB Triple Play – May 20, 2019

May 20, 2019 by Doug Shain

Let’s look at the MLB Triple Play for Monday, May 20

Shoutout to my mom, it’s her birthday today. I won’t say how old she is (I’m a gentleman), but let’s just say it’ll be a “nice” year. These picks are made in her honor.

On The Hill (Starting Pitcher): Mike Soroka (ATL/RHP) at San Francisco Giants

I try not to get too cute with my picks, but sometimes it’s super boring for you and for me to keep writing about the most expensive pitcher on the slate. Yes, Patrick Corbin ia great play today. Yes, you should definitely be playing him in cash games. But you know what? Mike Soroka has been pretty darned legit since finding a spot in the Braves rotation. His worst game was two starts ago when he went 6IP/4K/1ER. An average start for Soroka this year has been about 6IP/6K/2BB and 0.67 ER per game (yes, he’s given up less ER than games started). Today he faces the Giants, who own a .227 AVG and .400 SLG against RHP. Both of those numbers are in the bottom ten in MLB. San Francisco is far worse at home with a .210 AVG and .336 SLG; only the Pirates are more inept at home. AT&T Park is a very pitcher-friendly environment, and given the Giants struggles at the plate I feel very comfortable using Soroka in both cash and GPP lineups.

Starting Nine (Stack of the Day): New York Yankees (at David Hess- BAL/RHP):

Remember when David Hess kinda, sorta threw a no-hitter at Toronto way back in his second start of the year (6.1 IP/0 hits)? That was a fun time, but it was also a total fluke. Since that game he has given up 14 HR in 32 innings pitched (3.9 HR/9). Half of those home runs, HALF, have come against the Yankees in only 13 IP. A lot of the players who he faced in those games aren’t currently active for NYY (since he’s given up “only” 5 HR to the current roster), but that doesn’t mean we can’t jump all over Hess anyway. Kendrys Morales has been a nice addition to the Yankees and he’s likely to get the start in this game. He comes very cheap and has a great history against Hess with a .538 AVG and 3 HR in 13 AB. He’s a lock for my cash games today and any Yankees stack I make in a GPP. Luke Voit is far more expensive, but if you can fit him you should as he is 3 for 4 against Hess with a HR. Gleyber Torres and Aaron Hicks have combined for a .423 AVG and 4 XBH in 26 AB against Hess. Torres is smoking hot right now with a .368 AVG and 6 XBH over his last ten games, while Hicks is 3 for 8 in his last two games after coming out of the gate cold for his first two games of the season after a return from injury. Gio Urshela is a little banged up, but if he plays he has a .333 AVG over his last ten games and won’t break your bank. I could make a strong argument that a Yankees stack is your top option on this slate, and I definitely want to get some exposure (Morales/Torres is optimal) in cash games.

Pinch Hitter (HuLo play): Jason Castro (MIN/C at Felix Pena – LAA/RHP)
Few bats are hotter than the Twins right now. As a team they are averaging about 8 runs per game over the last week, with a .305 AVG and .571 SLG (both top four in the majors over the last week). Sure, those numbers are aided a little bit by their 18 run explosion on the Mariners Saturday night, but even if you take that game out they are still averaging over 6 runs per game over the last week. Surprisingly, the highest SLG on the team against righties is actually Jason Castro (.722 SLG), aided by 11 XBH in only 54 AB. He has been a real find at the catcher position, and if you want to spend a little bit down over a guy like Gary Sanchez or JT Realmuto, then Castro is a name you should be looking at.

Riding the Pine (Fade of the Day): Chris Paddack (SD/RHP vs Arizona Diamondbacks)
I really like the long term outlook for Paddack, but there is one metric that has been nagging at us all year at Bankster DFS. His fly ball rate, outside of one start, is hovering around 50% and that can be dangerous against a team like the Diamondbacks. In his last start he was touched up a bit by the Dodgers, giving up 2 HR and 3 ER in 4.2 IP. Those numbers aren’t awful, but with a young kid like this you never know if they are a blip on the radar or a sign of negative regression. Paddack could come out and give us 7IP/9K, but if he keeps getting the ball in the air it could be very bad against Arizona. They have scored over 6 runs per game and are fourth in the majors with a .515 SLG over the last week. I just don’t see a need to take a chance in a cash game with a guy like Paddack when you can use Patrick Corbin or Mike Soroka in better spots. In a GPP I’d be fine with this play but I’m going with a hard fade in cash.