Fanball MLB Triple Play – June 12, 2019
Did you know that on even a ten game MLB slate, there are approximately 250 TRILLION lineup combinations you can make? To be able to hit on the 1 lineup out of those combinations is harder than winning the lottery. A reduced player pool, though, can give you a significant advantage by reducing the possible lineup combinations you can make. If we limit our choices to only 5 players per position (a few extra for OF), you now have far fewer possible lineup combinations you can make (pricing helps reduce this number even lower). Sure, it’s still a lot of lineup choices (in the millions) but it’s only .000008% of the total possible lineup combinations everyone else is working with. That is a SIGNIFICANT advantage for you if you’re choosing from a strong reduced player pool. That’s where we come in to help.
Bankster DFS, The Home of the Reduced Player Pool, has teamed up with Fanball to give you a daily sneak peak of three of the plays we have included in our Bankster DFS reduced player pool. We aren’t lineup sellers; we write full articles that explain which players we like, why we like those players, and how we like to build our teams. We are a learning site more than anything, and you can see that in heavy member interaction on our various Slack Chat channels (we have one for every sport that we cover – NBA, AAF, NFL, NHL, MLB, EPL, PGA, MMA, CBB, WWE, sports betting, and Best Ball 10’s). You can get the rest of our reduced player pool, our daily articles, our members only slack chat, and Fanball exclusives with a Bankster DFS membership. That membership costs only $2.99/wk and you get everything mentioned above with it. You can contact me about membership on Twitter @bankster17 or sign up for service here.
Let’s look at the MLB Triple Play for Wednesday, June 12
On The Hill (Starting Pitcher): Justin Verlander (HOU/RHP) vs Milwaukee Brewers
What we have here is a rare case where there is the potential to get the best pitcher on the slate talent-wise at an ownership discount and that’s going to be hard to pass up. It’s my belief that the general public is going to see the opponent as Milwaukee for Verlander and move on to the next name. It’s a LOT easier to stomach the idea of Jose Berrios against a struggling Seattle team than it is to run Verlander out there against Christian Yelich and company. The thing is, Milwaukee is pretty much just an average team on the road this year. Their slugging percentage is 46 points LOWER on the road than it is at home, and Minute Maid Park is a very pitcher-friendly environment. The Brewers have a 28% K-rate against RHP this season, while Verlander has a 10.7 K/9 and has struck out 7+ batters in all but one of his last ten starts. Jose Berrios, for only $100 cheaper, can’t come close to matching that kind of upside (7+ K only three times in his last ten starts with a high of 8 strikeouts). All things being equal, and they pretty much are, I’m going to grab the higher upside guy and today that’s Verlander.
Starting Nine (Stack of the Day): Minnesota Twins (vs Tommy Milone- MIN/LHP)
I don’t buy how well Tommy Milone is pitching. Nothing about his career suggests that he’s going to continue to be a 3.10 ERA type of pitcher. This is a 4.50 ERA guy. His FIP is 3.80, which tells me that he’s due for some regress and I think that regression comes today in Minnesota. The Twins hammer, and I mean HAMMER, left-handed pitching this year. They are 1st in MLB with a .307 AVG and 2nd with a .519 SLG. Some will make the argument that they aren’t as good at home as they are on the road, and that’s true, but they still average nearly 5 runs per game with a .480 SLG at home. Some might say that Milone has their number since the BvP is mere .200 AVG against him from the current Twins roster, but Mitch Garver, Jorge Polanco, Byron Buxton, Eddie Rosario, Miguel Sano, and Max Kepler have never even faced him. So sure, maybe we can be a bit wary of CJ Cron (.111 AVG in 9 AB), but Nelson Cruz has a .300 AVG with 2 HR in 20 AB against Milone so we are good there as well. I’m not shying away from any RHB in the Twins lineup today; I’ll go heavy with Cruz, Garver (.719 SLG vs LHP), Buxton (.638 SLG vs LHP), Cron (.769 SLG vs LHP), and Sano (.549 SLG vs LHP). Depending on how the Twins set their lineup, I would have no issue using Marwin Gonzalez or Jorge Polanco either. I’m going to fade the lefty bats (Rosario/Kepler) but other than that it’s open season on a Tommy Milone regression stack!
Pinch Hitter (HuLo play): David Peralta (ARI/OF) at Zach Eflin (PHI/RHP)
This is a really simple play for me; Arizona has been hitting the ball hard but I don’t think Peralta gets nearly enough love. He should! The guy has a filthy .601 SLG and .300 AVG against RHP and gets to take swings at Citizens Bank Ballpark today. The stadium has been playing very hitter-friendly as the weather has warmed up and I want to take advantage of that. Peralta has 10+ Fanball points in five of six games and sits at only $5900. He’s a great one-off today if you’re stacking elsewhere, but if you’re stacking D’backs he has to be the first name you click. I would use him in cash games, for sure, at this price point.
Riding the Pine (Fade of the Day): Jose Berrios (MIN/RHP) vs Seattle Mariners
Seattle is struggling but they are capable of killing a pitcher via the home run. If they do that in this game that could ruin a QS out of Berrios, and we need a QS for him to hit his price point. He’s sitting at $11900 today, just $100 less than Justin Verlander. That’s a price I’m not willing to pay for a pitcher who just can’t match the upside of Verlander. We already talked about why I prefer Verlander over Berrios, but even if I wanted to get a little wacky with my lineup I’d choose to spend down for someone like Mike Soroka ($11000) or Miles Mikolas ($10400) rather than go all the way up to $11900 for Berrios. I think each of those pitchers has a similar upside and both have far safer matchups. There is very little argument in my mind to use Berrios at this price over any of the three other pitchers I’ve written about today.
Don’t forget that you can access the rest of our Reduced Player Pool as a Bankster DFS member. $2.99 per week gets you access to all the content we produce for all the sports we cover, our members only Slack Chat, and exclusive Fanball bonuses. Contact me @bankster17 or you can sign up for a membership here. Thank you for checking our our Fanball MLB Triple Play. You can find us here every day throughout the MLB season.