Fanball MLB Triple Play – June 21, 2019
Did you know that on even a ten game MLB slate, there are approximately 250 TRILLION lineup combinations you can make? To be able to hit on the 1 lineup out of those combinations is harder than winning the lottery. A reduced player pool, though, can give you a significant advantage by reducing the possible lineup combinations you can make. If we limit our choices to only 5 players per position (a few extra for OF), you now have far fewer possible lineup combinations you can make (pricing helps reduce this number even lower). Sure, it’s still a lot of lineup choices (in the millions) but it’s only .000008% of the total possible lineup combinations everyone else is working with. That is a SIGNIFICANT advantage for you if you’re choosing from a strong reduced player pool. That’s where we come in to help.
Bankster DFS, The Home of the Reduced Player Pool, has teamed up with Fanball to give you a daily sneak peak of three of the plays we have included in our Bankster DFS reduced player pool. We aren’t lineup sellers; we write full articles that explain which players we like, why we like those players, and how we like to build our teams. We are a learning site more than anything, and you can see that in heavy member interaction on our various Slack Chat channels (we have one for every sport that we cover – NBA, AAF, NFL, NHL, MLB, EPL, PGA, MMA, CBB, WWE, sports betting, and Best Ball 10’s). You can get the rest of our reduced player pool, our daily articles, our members only slack chat, and Fanball exclusives with a Bankster DFS membership. That membership costs only $2.99/wk and you get everything mentioned above with it. You can contact me about membership on Twitter @bankster17 or sign up for service here.
Let’s look at the MLB Triple Play for Friday, June 21
On The Hill (Starting Pitcher): Chris Sale (BOS/LHP) vs Toronto Blue Jays
I have this new game that I play every morning when I wake up. I look at the slate and I ask myself, “Is Chris Sale pitching today?” If the answer is “yes” then I plug him in and spend my morning worrying about what bats I want to use. If the answer is “no” I grumble and complain because I have to research both hitting and pitching. As it were, today the answer was “yes” so I’m plugging and playing Mr. Sale today. The guy has 10+ strikeouts in nine of his last eleven starts (and in one of those misses he had 8 strikeouts). He’s going up against a Blue Jays team that has a 27% strikeout rate against LHP this year. What really interests me about today is that the one time Sale faced the Blue Jays this year he got shelled for 5 runs in 4 innings pitched with only 3 strikeouts. If you don’t think that he’s going to be on a mission to come out and dominate then, um, hmm, you’re wrong. We want innings and strikeouts and there’s no pitcher on the slate who can come close to giving us the upside Sale can. On a 14 game slate there’s no worry about finding enough value to make this play work. Lock and load.
Starting Nine (Stack of the Day): Texas Rangers (vs Reynaldo Lopez- CWS/RHP)
There are a number of ways you can go with today’s slate, but the Rangers at home against a pitcher as bad as Reynaldo Lopez is going to be way too hard to pass up. This is especially true given how inexpensive the Rangers bats are today (allowing us to spend up on a second big stack and a big pitcher). Getting back to Lopez, let’s look at how bad he is. He has a 7.28 ERA and .314 BAA on the road this year. His 1.8 HR/9 on the road isn’t awful, but he’s a fly ball pitcher (0.44 GB to FB ratio is BAD) who doesn’t strike out enough batters (8.4 K/9) to make up for the fact that Globe Life Park is an unforgiving environment. His 2.3 HR/9 at home, a hitter-friendly environment, is a much better representation of what we can expect today at the second best hitter’s park in all of baseball (behind only Coors Field). The weather is lining up really nicely for a Rangers stack; hot and humid – the ball is going to fly today. The Rangers average 5.7 runs/game at home this year and have a .463 SLG (7th best in MLB); numbers that will increase now that we are officially in the summer months. The Rangers blast RHP (courtesy of MLB.com):
Willie Calhoun is one of my favorite plays on the slate at only $4900. I’m going to look to stack him with guys like Asdrubal Cabrera, Shin-Soo Choo, and Elvis Andrus. A stack of those four guys with Chris Sale leaves you $5700 per player to fill out the rest of your lineup (hello, Mike Trout!). One name you won’t see on the chart above, but who is very much in play, is Rougned Odor. He’s been struggling to produce but that doesn’t mean he’s playing poorly. Zac Green, a hardcore Rangers fan who watches every game, tells me that Odor is crushing the ball and just missing taking it yard. He says Odor is locked in and ready to explode. Zac is usually good on these calls so Odor is going to find a place on my Rangers stack as well.
Pinch Hitter (HuLo play): Freddie Freeman (ATL/1B) vs Stephen Strasburg (WSH/RHP)
Generally I like to go with a cheaper play here but every once in a while I’ll look to get a higher priced stud that I think will carry a low ownership (hence the HuLo – high upside, low ownership). Few players have the upside of Freddie Freeman and today he’s going up against a pitcher who he has dominated over his career. In 50 AB against Strasburg, Freeman has a .340 AVG with 9 XBH and 16 RBI. For the season, Freeman has dominated RHP with a .312 AVG and .601 SLG; over his last ten games he’s had 18+ Fanball points eight times. The dude is locked in and he’s going up against a guy who he loves hitting against. If we can get him at a low ownership I’m all about that play.
Riding the Pine (Fade of the Day): Dallas Keuchel (ATL/RHP) at Washington Nationals
Dallas Keuchel is back!! Hooray!! Yippee!! Yeah, don’t get cute here folks. We’ve got a loaded pitching slate (Sale, Strasburg, Bueheler, Boyd, Nola, Bauer) and you can absolutely afford to spend up on one of them today. The Nationals are playing very well offensively at the moment (6.7 runs/game with a .573 SLG – 2nd in baseball – over the last week) and aren’t team I’d want to send any pitcher up against right now, let alone a pitcher who they hammer (.357 AVG; .512 SLG as a team in 84 AB against Keuchel). Add in the fact that this is Keuchel’s first major league start of the year and we have a recipe for disaster. I get that Keuchel is a really good pitcher, and I think he has the ability to come out and have a strong game, but that’s not the most likely scenario and I’m not willing to chance it with so many other options on the slate today. If this was two days ago when there was so much uncertainty on the mound I’d have taken this shot, today that’s not the case. Spend up on a top arm and save Keuchel for another day.
Don’t forget that you can access the rest of our Reduced Player Pool as a Bankster DFS member. $2.99 per week gets you access to all the content we produce for all the sports we cover, our members only Slack Chat, and exclusive Fanball bonuses. Contact me @bankster17 or you can sign up for a membership here. Thank you for checking our our Fanball MLB Triple Play. You can find us here every day throughout the MLB season.