Fanball MLB Triple Play – June 7, 2019
Did you know that on even a ten game MLB slate, there are approximately 250 TRILLION lineup combinations you can make? To be able to hit on the 1 lineup out of those combinations is harder than winning the lottery. A reduced player pool, though, can give you a significant advantage by reducing the possible lineup combinations you can make. If we limit our choices to only 5 players per position (a few extra for OF), you now have far fewer possible lineup combinations you can make (pricing helps reduce this number even lower). Sure, it’s still a lot of lineup choices (in the millions) but it’s only .000008% of the total possible lineup combinations everyone else is working with. That is a SIGNIFICANT advantage for you if you’re choosing from a strong reduced player pool. That’s where we come in to help.
Bankster DFS, The Home of the Reduced Player Pool, has teamed up with Fanball to give you a daily sneak peak of three of the plays we have included in our Bankster DFS reduced player pool. We aren’t lineup sellers; we write full articles that explain which players we like, why we like those players, and how we like to build our teams. We are a learning site more than anything, and you can see that in heavy member interaction on our various Slack Chat channels (we have one for every sport that we cover – NBA, AAF, NFL, NHL, MLB, EPL, PGA, MMA, CBB, WWE, sports betting, and Best Ball 10’s). You can get the rest of our reduced player pool, our daily articles, our members only slack chat, and Fanball exclusives with a Bankster DFS membership. That membership costs only $2.99/wk and you get everything mentioned above with it. You can contact me about membership on Twitter @bankster17 or sign up for service here.
Let’s look at the MLB Triple Play for Friday, June 7
On The Hill (Starting Pitcher): Andrew Heaney (LAA/LHP) vs Seattle Mariners
It was really, really hard to pass on Gerrit Cole and Domingo German in this spot but the value you’re getting from Heaney at only $9800 is just too much to ignore. That price point puts him $1800 less than German and $2200 less than Cole. You can do a lot of extra damage at the plate with that kind of money to play with. Heaney was a guy I had targeted tonight prior to seeing the Fanball price list, so seeing him so inexpensive only further pushed me in his direction. He’s only had two starts this year, but they were both exactly what you’re looking for from a pitcher on Fanball; innings and strikeouts. In those two starts Heaney has 11 IP and 18 K, both very reasonable given his price point. His two game average of 29.5 FB points is higher than the season average of any pitcher on this slate. I know it’s a small sample size, but you can’t ignore a 14.7 K/9 even over two games when the matchup is against a struggling offense like the Mariners. I get that Seattle just sent into Houston and put up 21 runs in the last two games, but prior to that they had averaged only 3 runs per game over their last five games. Even with their offensive explosion over the last two games, the Mariners have struck out in 31% of their AB over the last week and for the season they have a 30% K-rate against LHP. In their careers the current Seattle roster has a 30% K-rate against Heaney. Sense a theme here? The data definitely favors Heaney in this matchup, and having lost eight of their last ten games Seattle is a team we are going to continue picking on.
Starting Nine (Stack of the Day): Tampa Bay Rays (at Rick Porcello – BOS/RHP)
I don’t know if the Tampa Bay Rays will be the highest scoring stack on the slate. Houston, Milwaukee, Texas all seem pretty sexy, but none of those teams will bring the kind of value that the Rays can give you tonight. Austin Meadows is only $5k, and Avisail Garcia is only $4.9k tonight. That’s really all you need to know to realize how great of an ROI you can get from a Rays stack. It doesn’t hurt that Garcia is white hot (10+ FB points in nine of ten games), or that he hits Porcello (.375 AVG with 3 XBH in 24 AB) and RHP (.326 AVG/.532 SLG) really well. Meadows has been hammering RHP all year as well (.680 SLG with 6 SB as an added bonus). You get both for less than $10k today. That’s filthy. You can use either catcher depending on who starts; D’Arnaud is batting. 500 with 2 HR over his last seven days, while Mike Zunino has a .300 AVG in 10 AB against Porcello. Willy Adames has been great over the last week with a .400 AVG and .680 AVG. He will run you a whopping $3800. The two most expensive pieces on the Rays are Brandon Lowe ($6100) and Tommy Pham ($6600). Both hit RHP well (Lowe – .535 SLG; Pham – .505 SLG) but they are both also struggling (3 for 23 combined over the last week) and fadebale if you don’t want to spend up that big. Christian Arroyo is only $3200 and he’s crushed RHP in limited work this year (.550 SLG in 20 AB). Basically, you can get a killer TB stack and still have money left over for big bats in HOU, MIL, and TEX (especially if you spend down on a pitcher like Heaney or Lynn).
Pinch Hitter (HuLo play): Elias DIaz (PIT/C) vs Brandon Woodruff (MIL/RHP)
I don’t know why Elias Diaz doesn’t get more love. He was clearly the better hitter last year over Francisco Cervelli, and all he’s done this year is prove it. Over his last ten games he’s been red hot with a .389 AVG, 4 XBH, and 12 RBI with only 5 strikeouts in 36 AB. 15 of his 16 RBI have come off of RHP, against whom he is hitting an acceptable .278 this year. He’s only $3200 on Fanball, and if you want to spend up at other positions he’s a great option for your catcher. I love spending down at a weak position and not giving up any upside in the process.
Riding the Pine (Fade of the Day): Clayton Kershaw (LAD/LHP) at San Francisco Giants
What is the upside of using Kershaw tonight at $12k when I can get Gerrit Cole for the exact same price? Kershaw may be a little less blowout-prone than Cole, but he doesn’t come close to Cole’s upside. If you took Kershawks best innings and strikeout totals (regardless if they came in the same start) you have a guy with an upside of 7IP/8K. Cole has AVERAGED 6IP/9K per game this year. With ER not counting against you on Fanball, we can’t even argue that we should use Kershaw because he is less likely to give up 6 ER in a game because even in Cole’s highest earned run games (6 ER and 8 ER) he still put up 21.5 and 22.5 Fanball points thanks to 7 and 8 strikeouts in those games. Kershaw only averages 23 FB points per game this year. So what we are seeing is that one guy’s AVERAGE game (Cole) is better than the other guy’s BEST game (Kershaw), and his WORST game (COle) is better than the other guy’s AVERAGE game (Kershaw). I’d pay $1500 more for Cole today than Kershaw, so to get him at the same price is a no-brainer for me. I may not want to spend up for a pitcher, but even if I did I will have exactly zero shares of Kershaw on Fanball tonight.
Don’t forget that you can access the rest of our Reduced Player Pool as a Bankster DFS member. $2.99 per week gets you access to all the content we produce for all the sports we cover, our members only Slack Chat, and exclusive Fanball bonuses. Contact me @bankster17 or you can sign up for a membership here. Thank you for checking our our Fanball MLB Triple Play. You can find us here every day throughout the MLB season.