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Fanball MLB Triple Play – May 10, 2019

by • May 10, 2019

Did you know that on even a ten game MLB slate, there are approximately 250 TRILLION lineup combinations you can make? To be able to hit on the 1 lineup out of those combinations is harder than winning the lottery. A reduced player pool, though, can give you a significant advantage by reducing the possible lineup combinations you can make. If we limit our choices to only 5 players per position (a few extra for OF), you now have far fewer possible lineup combinations you can make (pricing helps reduce this number even lower). Sure, it’s still a lot of lineup choices (in the millions) but it’s only .000008% of the total possible lineup combinations everyone else is working with. That is a SIGNIFICANT advantage for you if you’re choosing from a strong reduced player pool. That’s where we come in to help.

    Bankster DFS, The Home of the Reduced Player Pool, has teamed up with Fanball to give you a daily sneak peak of three of the plays we have included in our Bankster DFS reduced player pool. We aren’t lineup sellers; we write full articles that explain which players we like, why we like those players, and how we like to build our teams. We are a learning site more than anything, and you can see that in heavy member interaction on our various Slack Chat channels (we have one for every sport that we cover – NBA, AAF, NFL, NHL, MLB, EPL, PGA, MMA, CBB, WWE, sports betting, and Best Ball 10’s). You can get the rest of our reduced player pool, our daily articles, our members only slack chat, and Fanball exclusives with a Bankster DFS membership. That membership costs only $2.99/wk and you get everything mentioned above with it. You can contact me about membership on Twitter @bankster17 or sign up for service here.

Let’s look at the MLB Triple Play for Friday, May 10

On The Hill (Starting Pitcher): Jake Odorizzi (MIN/RHP) vs Detroit Tigers

    There is enough value on this slate that we don’t HAVE to spend down a bit at pitching, but given the matchups for some of the cheaper guys I may WANT to pay down at pitcher. I had a hard time choosing between German Marquez (pitching at Coors), Jake Arrieta (pitching on the road against a DH), and Jake Odorizzi, but in the end I went with the guy who didn’t have a big red flag staring me in the face. Odorizzi is ticking all my boxes, and I love when my boxes get ticked. He’s been on a roll lately with three games of 6+ strikeouts over his last four outings; four outings where he’s given up a TOTAL of only 3 ER. That ticks my “what have you done for me lately” box. The next box he ticks is his “he pitches really well in this park box.” At home, Odorizzi has a 0.96 ERA and 11.6 K/9 to go along with a 6:1 K to BB ratio this year. Finally, he’s clicking the “dude has the best matchup on the slate” box, as the Tigers are awful against RHP this season with a .369 SGL (27th in the league) and 29% K-rate. That’s a pretty high number considering they are facing a strikeout pitcher. The current Tigers roster has a .207 AVG, 29% K-rate, and has never hit a homer off Odorizzi in 58 career AB. I suppose that ticks the “pitcher if facing a lineup he’s dominated” box as well. When a pitcher ticks four boxes he’s pretty much a lock to find his way into my lineup and we see how things play out.

Starting Nine (Stack of the Day): Los Angeles Angels (at Dan Straily – BAL/RHP):

I absolutely hate writing up a team on the day after they go nuts. The Angels could have scored zero runs yesterday instead of 12 runs and I’d still have liked them in this matchup. Dan Straily is a giant pile of “yuck”. He’s given up 5+ ER in three of his six starts, has a gross 3.1 HR/9, and is yet to strike out even five batters in any game this season. Add in a ridiculous 61% fly ball rate (on batted balls) and you’ve got a recipe for disaster. The Angels have a number of players who hammer RHP, including value players like David Fletcher (.365 AVG/7XBH in 63 AB), Brian Goodwin (.341 AVG/9XBH in 82 AB), and Tommy LaStella (.280 AVG/8HR in 75 AB). Let’s not forget that they also have higher end players like Mike Trout, Andrelton Simmons, Kole Calhoun, and Shohei Ohtani; all of whom have, or have the capability of, crushing right-handed pitching. Calhoun is particularly interesting with 14 XBH in only 88 AB against righties. That they have two reasonable catching options in Kevan Smith and Jonathan Lucroy is a huge bonus since you can just plug and play whoever gets the start behind the plate. The entire team is hitting hot right now as well (as if you’d need another reason to play them), with Lucroy (4 XBH), Fletcher (4 XBH), and Calhoun all batting over .350 over the last week of play. I love that I can stack almost all Angels at a very reasonable price so I can load up with a big pitcher or another big stack if I wanted too (hello, Colorado!).

Pinch Hitter (HuLo play): Matt Carpenter (STL/3B vs Trevor Williams – PIT/RHP)
    I’m cheating a little bit here because Carpenter is a bigger name than I’d usually throw into this spot but he’s got such a great matchup that I had to find a place to squeeze him in. In 18 career AB against Williams, Carp has a .500 AVG with 5 XBH and only 3 strikeouts. There’s literally nothing to dislike about those numbers. Carpenter is reasonably priced and will be a mortal lock for any cash game lineup I roll out, but I also won’t hesitate to throw him into a GPP as a high end one-off play as well.

Riding the Pine (Fade of the Day): Shin-Soo Choo (TEX/OF at Justin Verlander)
    This is here on the off chance that you wanted to ride a hot bat as a contrarian play against one of the best pitchers in baseball. I get the idea, but this is neither the player nor the spot to try to pull that off. First of all, Minute Maid Park is not a hitter’s ballpark despite what people think. I know that left field wall looks inviting, but this has been the third most pitcher friendly park in baseball the last three years. It’s really not that place to try to hunt for value in a bad matchup. On top of that, Choo has struck out in 40% of his AB against Justin Verlander, and when he does get the bat on the ball he hasn’t done much with it (.202 AVG). People may see that Choo has 6 XBH against Verlander in his career, but that’s in 84 AB and only equates to a .357 SLG. For comparison’s sake, that would make him the player equivalent of the 2019 Indians (second worst slugging team against RHP in baseball this year). I love the idea of a double whammy (stacking against a chalk pitcher) but those plays have to come with some level of statistical support; otherwise it’s just throwing money down the drain. I don’t want you to throw your money down the drain. If you really want to try to double whammy against Verlander, go with Elvis Andrus instead. The guy is swinging a hot bat, can steal a bat (worth 9 points on Fanball), and has hit Verlander very well in his career (.340 AVG and only 4 strikeouts in 53 AB). That’s a play that makes some statistical sense if you’re trying to leverage against the likely highest owned pitcher on the slate.

Don’t forget that you can access the rest of our Reduced Player Pool as a Bankster DFS member. $2.99 per week gets you access to all the content we produce for all the sports we cover, our members only Slack Chat, and exclusive Fanball bonuses. Contact me @bankster17 or you can sign up for a membership here. Thank you for checking our our Fanball MLB Triple Play. You can find us here every day throughout the MLB season.