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Fanball MLB Triple Play – May 11, 2019

by • May 11, 2019

Did you know that on even a ten game MLB slate, there are approximately 250 TRILLION lineup combinations you can make? To be able to hit on the 1 lineup out of those combinations is harder than winning the lottery. A reduced player pool, though, can give you a significant advantage by reducing the possible lineup combinations you can make. If we limit our choices to only 5 players per position (a few extra for OF), you now have far fewer possible lineup combinations you can make (pricing helps reduce this number even lower). Sure, it’s still a lot of lineup choices (in the millions) but it’s only .000008% of the total possible lineup combinations everyone else is working with. That is a SIGNIFICANT advantage for you if you’re choosing from a strong reduced player pool. That’s where we come in to help.

    Bankster DFS, The Home of the Reduced Player Pool, has teamed up with Fanball to give you a daily sneak peak of three of the plays we have included in our Bankster DFS reduced player pool. We aren’t lineup sellers; we write full articles that explain which players we like, why we like those players, and how we like to build our teams. We are a learning site more than anything, and you can see that in heavy member interaction on our various Slack Chat channels (we have one for every sport that we cover – NBA, AAF, NFL, NHL, MLB, EPL, PGA, MMA, CBB, WWE, sports betting, and Best Ball 10’s). You can get the rest of our reduced player pool, our daily articles, our members only slack chat, and Fanball exclusives with a Bankster DFS membership. That membership costs only $2.99/wk and you get everything mentioned above with it. You can contact me about membership on Twitter @bankster17 or sign up for service here.

Let’s look at the MLB Triple Play for Saturday, May 11

On The Hill (Starting Pitcher): Jacob DeGrom (NYM/RHP) vs Miami Marlins

    I am the first to admit that DeGrom is the most boring play on the slate today, but that doesn’t make him a bad play. Remember, when we are playing cash we want safe plays. A high strikeout RHP against the free-swinging Marlins is about as safe as it gets. Miami has the least power of any team against righties with a .306 SLG and is 28th with a .214 AVG. They also strike out 30% of the time against RHP, so it’s not even like they are getting the bat on the ball. DeGrom has looked like his old self his last two starts with a 13 strikeouts and 2 ER in 14 innings pitched. Even when DeGrom was pitching poorly he was still striking guys out; 6+ K in six of his seven starts this year. Miami is a great matchup for him to continue his streak of solid plays, having only hit 1 HR off him in 90 career AB.

Starting Nine (Stack of the Day): Houston Astros (vs Drew Smyly – TEX/LHP):

For the most part, a full chalky Houston stack has disappointed for most of the 2019 season. That’s not to say that mini-stacks or one-offs haven’t worked, but overloading your roster with Astros bats hasn’t been a great option. I think that can change in a big way tonight. Smyly hasn’t been great with 4+ ER in three of five outings this year and a HR allowed in four of his five games. He also has 2+ BB in every game he’s pitched, as well as a 59% fly ball rate on batted balls. None of those statistics are good for a pitcher. Houston ticks all my boxes tonight; they hit Smyly well, they hit lefties well, and they are batting hot over the last week. The quartet of George Springer, Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve, and Michael Brantley have combined for a .386 AVG, 10 XBH, and 4 SB in 44 AB against Smyly. Over the last week all four of those bats, along with Robinson Chirinos, Jake Marisnick, and Yuli Gurriel, have a .300 AVG or better. Gurriel has a ridiculous .475 AVG over his last seven games, while Michael Brantley has 7 XBH, and George Springer has four HR. As a team Houston has crushed LHP, but of particular note is Marisnick (.400 AVG), Jose Altuve (6 XBH in 32 AB), and Springer (4 HR in 31 AB). If Max Stassi is behind the plate he makes for a fine replacement for Chirinos.

Pinch Hitter (HuLo play): Christin Stewart (DET/OF at Kohl Stewart – MIN/RHP)
    Stewart should be in the lineup for the Tigers after an injury layoff. Prior to hitting the DL (still won’t call it the IL) he was on fire with a .324 AVG and 8 XBH in his previous ten games. I’m all about giving him some run against Kohl Stewart (no relation), as Kohl is pretty much terrible at pitching a baseball. In his one start this year he gave up 5 ER in 6 IP with 2 HR allowed and more BB (3) than K (1). We saw yesterday with Austin Meadows that a hot hitter is capable of coming off the DL and staying hot, so I’m going to ride that with an underpriced and probably underowned Stewart.

Riding the Pine (Fade of the Day): Joey Gallo (TEX/OF at Gerrit Cole)
    Look, Gallo could get you a HR today. He has 3 of them in 16 AB against Gerrit Cole. Shoot, in a GPP I’d go so far as to say that I’d have no problem using Gallo given his upside. In a cash game though, you have no business using Joey Gallo. Along with those 3 HR in 16 AB against Cole, Gallo also has a whopping 11 strikeouts (69% K-rate). I usually get giddy when I get to use a pitcher against a batter with a 35% K-rate; this is double that. The words “safe” and “Joey Gallo” don’t belong in the same dictionary, and in cash games we want the safest plays we can get. Fade Joey Gallo in cash games. Always.

Don’t forget that you can access the rest of our Reduced Player Pool as a Bankster DFS member. $2.99 per week gets you access to all the content we produce for all the sports we cover, our members only Slack Chat, and exclusive Fanball bonuses. Contact me @bankster17 or you can sign up for a membership here. Thank you for checking our our Fanball MLB Triple Play. You can find us here every day throughout the MLB season.