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Fanball MLB Triple Play – May 14, 2019

by • May 14, 2019

Did you know that on even a ten game MLB slate, there are approximately 250 TRILLION lineup combinations you can make? To be able to hit on the 1 lineup out of those combinations is harder than winning the lottery. A reduced player pool, though, can give you a significant advantage by reducing the possible lineup combinations you can make. If we limit our choices to only 5 players per position (a few extra for OF), you now have far fewer possible lineup combinations you can make (pricing helps reduce this number even lower). Sure, it’s still a lot of lineup choices (in the millions) but it’s only .000008% of the total possible lineup combinations everyone else is working with. That is a SIGNIFICANT advantage for you if you’re choosing from a strong reduced player pool. That’s where we come in to help.

    Bankster DFS, The Home of the Reduced Player Pool, has teamed up with Fanball to give you a daily sneak peak of three of the plays we have included in our Bankster DFS reduced player pool. We aren’t lineup sellers; we write full articles that explain which players we like, why we like those players, and how we like to build our teams. We are a learning site more than anything, and you can see that in heavy member interaction on our various Slack Chat channels (we have one for every sport that we cover – NBA, AAF, NFL, NHL, MLB, EPL, PGA, MMA, CBB, WWE, sports betting, and Best Ball 10’s). You can get the rest of our reduced player pool, our daily articles, our members only slack chat, and Fanball exclusives with a Bankster DFS membership. That membership costs only $2.99/wk and you get everything mentioned above with it. You can contact me about membership on Twitter @bankster17 or sign up for service here.

Let’s look at the MLB Triple Play for Tuesday, May 14

On The Hill (Starting Pitcher): Caleb Smith (MIA/LHP) vs Tampa Bay Rays

    Is anyone surprised by this? I have been riding Smith all year and he’s yet to disappoint. He has 8+ strikeouts in each of his last four games, he hasn’t given up more than 3 ER in any game this year (and he’s only done that once), and he is a beast at home with a 1.50 ERA and  only 1 HR allowed in four starts. This makes a lot of sense because Marlins Park has the best park factor for pitchers over the last three years. You may think that the Rays are a bad matchup for Smith, but Tampa struggles hard against LHP with a wickedly high 35% K-rate on the season. Against a guy like Smith that could me double digit strikeouts are in play. Smith averages 6IP/8K, and for him to be only the sixth most expensive pitcher on the slate is a huge bonus. Even if every pitcher was priced the same I think I’d still want to use Smith as my top SP on this slate, and I love that I’ll get not only that price discount but also an ownership discount with bigger names like Chris Sale, Noah Syndergaard, Clayton Kershaw, and Chris Paddack on the slate.

Starting Nine (Stack of the Day): Boston Red Sox (vs Kyle Freeland – COL/LHP):

I really wanted to put the Astros here (because I love them and they are going to hammer Ryan Carpenter) but I thought it would be nice to feature a team I didn’t write about just last night; but make sure to know that I love the Astros tonight for sure.

Boston has a great matchup, though, and they are worth talking about. Kyle Freeland comes into this game struggling, having given up 6 HR over his last three starts en route to an 8.47 ERA over those games. Sure, some of those games were at Coors, but historically Freeland has been a better pitcher at Coors than he has been on the road. It’s not like Fenway is a pitcher-friendly environment; it has the third highest park factor for batters over the last three years. The Red Sox are starting to come around offensively, averaging 7.5 runs per game over the last week (the second highest average in baseball behind the Rockies). Boston has hammered lefties this year, but nobody more than JD Martinez. He has 5 HR and a .400 AVG in 30 AB against LHP this year. Christian Vasquez (.382 AVG/7XBH in 34 AB) and Xander Bogaerts (.333 AVG/6XBH in 30 AB) are two other batters who have had a great season against lefties in 2019. Mookie Betts hasn’t been as strong (.175 AVG/0HR) but if you want to take a stab on him then I can’t blame you because, you know, he’s Mookie Betts. Betts also has been really good at home this year with a near-.300 AVG and 8 XBH in 18 games. Steve Pearce has been awful this year (.117 AVG), but he keeps getting playing time and historically he’s been a lefty killer. If you were to ever take a shot on him, today might be a time to do so (only in a GPP, and only if you’re stacking Boston, and only if you need to spend down).

Pinch Hitter (HuLo play): Victor Robles (WSH/OF vs Noah Syndergaard – NYM/RHP)
    Noah Syndergaard has given up 4+ ER in all but two starts this year. There is something wrong with his mechanics and I wouldn’t be shocked to see an injury revealed at some point in the near future. Despite all this, I fully expect Thor to be highly owned once again anyway because he’s a big name and the Nationals are not a high-powered offense. Robles has only faced Syndergaard four times, but he has 3 hits and 2 HR in those 4 AB. Robles is really expensive ($6300) and has been on somewhat of a cold streak the last week (.167 AVG), but that just makes him a more appealing one-off in a GPP. I don’t think we can trust him in cash, but the opportunity to double whammy Syndergaard with a Robles/Rendon mini-stack is one we should strongly consider. I may not make that stack on a main GPP, but if you’re making multiple lineups (and as I always say, why make 1 lineup when you can make 4 or 5) then I’d surely get that Washington exposure out there.

Riding the Pine (Fade of the Day): Marcell Ozuna (STL/OF at Mike Foltynewicz)
    Ozuna has, for the most part, looked like an All Star caliber player for the majority of this year. Against Folty though, he barely looks like a major league player. In 20 AB he has 9 strikeouts (45% K-rate) and .200 AVG. Over the last week Ozuna has been even worse with a .125 AVG; 3 total hits in 24 AB. With 12 games on the main slate, there really is no reason to take a chance on Ozuna when there are far better options to choose from. Heck, even if I was stacking Cardinals I might consider to focus more on guys like Kolen Wong (.714 AVG/4XBH in 7 AB against Foltynewicz) and Paul DeJong (2 XBH in 5 AB against Folty).

Don’t forget that you can access the rest of our Reduced Player Pool as a Bankster DFS member. $2.99 per week gets you access to all the content we produce for all the sports we cover, our members only Slack Chat, and exclusive Fanball bonuses. Contact me @bankster17 or you can sign up for a membership here. Thank you for checking our our Fanball MLB Triple Play. You can find us here every day throughout the MLB season.