Fanball MLB Triple Play – May 15, 2019
Did you know that on even a ten game MLB slate, there are approximately 250 TRILLION lineup combinations you can make? To be able to hit on the 1 lineup out of those combinations is harder than winning the lottery. A reduced player pool, though, can give you a significant advantage by reducing the possible lineup combinations you can make. If we limit our choices to only 5 players per position (a few extra for OF), you now have far fewer possible lineup combinations you can make (pricing helps reduce this number even lower). Sure, it’s still a lot of lineup choices (in the millions) but it’s only .000008% of the total possible lineup combinations everyone else is working with. That is a SIGNIFICANT advantage for you if you’re choosing from a strong reduced player pool. That’s where we come in to help.
Bankster DFS, The Home of the Reduced Player Pool, has teamed up with Fanball to give you a daily sneak peak of three of the plays we have included in our Bankster DFS reduced player pool. We aren’t lineup sellers; we write full articles that explain which players we like, why we like those players, and how we like to build our teams. We are a learning site more than anything, and you can see that in heavy member interaction on our various Slack Chat channels (we have one for every sport that we cover – NBA, AAF, NFL, NHL, MLB, EPL, PGA, MMA, CBB, WWE, sports betting, and Best Ball 10’s). You can get the rest of our reduced player pool, our daily articles, our members only slack chat, and Fanball exclusives with a Bankster DFS membership. That membership costs only $2.99/wk and you get everything mentioned above with it. You can contact me about membership on Twitter @bankster17 or sign up for service here.
Let’s look at the MLB Triple Play for Wednesday, May 15
On The Hill (Starting Pitcher): Justin Verlander (HOU/RHP) at Detroit Tigers
I hate taking the obvious play, and I almost wrote up Eduardo Rodriguez instead, but sometimes it’s just better to not get too cute and make the “safe” play. This is especially true in cash games, and there’s really no pitcher that’s close to Verlander when it comes to who gives me that warm, fuzzy feeling on the mound tonight. Over his last six starts, Verlander has pitched less than 6IP or had less than 7 strikeouts. To roll out a pitcher where that is the floor is a pretty nice start to a cash game, and I really do that this is the absolute floor of what we are looking to get from Verlander in this game. The Tigers have a 28% K-rate against RHP this year and .365 SLG (third worst in baseball). There is more than enough value on Fanball to spend all the way up at pitcher, and on a site where innings, strikeouts, and quality starts are the key to victory I think we have to go ahead and pay that price today.
Starting Nine (Stack of the Day): Houston Astros (at Gregory Soto – DET/LHP):
Oy, two plays in a row that are super chalky but I don’t think that I’d be doing good by you if I tried to give you another stack and label it as my “top stack of the night.” I tried to give you that other stack last night, with a “Houston is a great stack” disclaimer, and then the Astros went out and dominated. There’s no disclaimer today, we are talking about Houston. Gregory Soto has had one start in the majors and he gave up 7 ER in 4 IP, while only striking out 1 batter and giving up more fly balls than ground balls. This is not a top pitching prospect who we are talking about, and just like with Ryan Carpenter last night, this kid is overmatched against the single hottest hitting team in the league (over 7 runs per game over the last week). This is a team that kills LHP with a .523 SLG (2nd in baseball) and a .892 OPS (1st in baseball). We know the big names – Springer, Correa, Brantley, Bregman (who actually struggles against LHP) but it’s been guys like Jake Marisnick (.417 AVG/3XBH the last week), Yuli Gurriel (.379 AVG/3XBH the last week), and Aledmys Diaz (.364 AVG/4XBH/11RBI the last week) who can really separate you from the pack if you get them into your lineup. I’m not saying to fade the studs (I’m kind of saying to fade Bregman), but I am saying that you can lower some ownership and cost by using a guy like Diaz or Marisnick with Springer, Correa, and Brantley.
Pinch Hitter (HuLo play): Michael Conforto (NYM/OF at Patrick Corbin – WSH/LHP)
Let’s get a little weird here with our HuLo pick tonight. I am never a fan of lefty on lefty violence but this matchup may just work out in our favor. First of all, Patrick Corbin could very well be one of the three highest owned pitchers of the night. I absolutely love the idea of trying to hit a double whammy (using a batter against a chalk pitcher) if I’m not using a chalky pitcher. Second of all, Conforto has a great read on Corbin with a .429 AVG and 4 HR in only 14 AB against him. The small sample size police may come after me for this one, but time and again we are seeing small sample size BvP paying off. Remember that this is an under the radar GPP play and not a main play, so it can be a little left of center with a high variance and still be a a play we want to make. Conforto is hitting well recently with a .500 AVG and 2 HR over the last week, and he’s held his own against LHP this year with a .268 AVG and 4 XBH in 41 AB.
Riding the Pine (Fade of the Day): Kenta Maeda (LAD/RHP vs San Diego Padres)
Kenta Maeda is a fine pitcher. He has a 3-0 record and a 1.86 ERA at home this year. He doesn’t tend to get blown out and he isn’t terribly home run prone. That all said, there’s no way we can use him on Fanball tonight. On Fanball, innings and strikeouts are what matters most since there are no negative points for earned runs. Maeda doesn’t give you a ton of innings or a ton of strikeouts, so I don’t know why you’d consider him. His season high for innings is 6.2 IP and his season high for strikeouts is 6 K. A combined 12.2 IP + K is not going to get you all that far on Fanball, especially if that’s your ceiling and not a floor. I’d rather take a shot on a guy like German Marquez in a much tougher matchup based on strikeout upside alone (don’t use German Marquez tonight). Justin Verlander, Mike Minor, Mike Soroka, and Eduardo Rodriguez are all in better spots and offer a much higher upside than Maeda. With that many choices there really is no reason to spend your cap on a guy who has a very limited upside.
Don’t forget that you can access the rest of our Reduced Player Pool as a Bankster DFS member. $2.99 per week gets you access to all the content we produce for all the sports we cover, our members only Slack Chat, and exclusive Fanball bonuses. Contact me @bankster17 or you can sign up for a membership here. Thank you for checking our our Fanball MLB Triple Play. You can find us here every day throughout the MLB season.