Fanball MLB Triple Play – May 17, 2019
Did you know that on even a ten game MLB slate, there are approximately 250 TRILLION lineup combinations you can make? To be able to hit on the 1 lineup out of those combinations is harder than winning the lottery. A reduced player pool, though, can give you a significant advantage by reducing the possible lineup combinations you can make. If we limit our choices to only 5 players per position (a few extra for OF), you now have far fewer possible lineup combinations you can make (pricing helps reduce this number even lower). Sure, it’s still a lot of lineup choices (in the millions) but it’s only .000008% of the total possible lineup combinations everyone else is working with. That is a SIGNIFICANT advantage for you if you’re choosing from a strong reduced player pool. That’s where we come in to help.
Bankster DFS, The Home of the Reduced Player Pool, has teamed up with Fanball to give you a daily sneak peak of three of the plays we have included in our Bankster DFS reduced player pool. We aren’t lineup sellers; we write full articles that explain which players we like, why we like those players, and how we like to build our teams. We are a learning site more than anything, and you can see that in heavy member interaction on our various Slack Chat channels (we have one for every sport that we cover – NBA, AAF, NFL, NHL, MLB, EPL, PGA, MMA, CBB, WWE, sports betting, and Best Ball 10’s). You can get the rest of our reduced player pool, our daily articles, our members only slack chat, and Fanball exclusives with a Bankster DFS membership. That membership costs only $2.99/wk and you get everything mentioned above with it. You can contact me about membership on Twitter @bankster17 or sign up for service here.
Let’s look at the MLB Triple Play for Friday, May 17
On The Hill (Starting Pitcher): Jacob DeGrom (NYM/RHP) at Miami Marlins
At first I was a little unsure if I wanted to use DeGrom because, although he’s been good against Miami historically, he wasn’t the dominant pitcher that I’d want from a high end guy on a 15 game slate (a 25% K-rate leaves a lot to be desired). Then I started to dig deeper and realized that, in this case, we need to look more at this year rather than anything further past that. Miami has a .301 SLG against RHP this season, so we don’t have to worry too much about them overpowering DeGrom. Secondly, Miami has a 30% K-rate against RHP so there’s a ton of upside there. Finally. DeGrom has faced Miami twice in 2019 and has combined for 14IP/22K/1ER. That’s domination personified! DeGrom has settled down after a rough stretch, averaging 7IP/7K/1Er over his last three starts; he’s perfectly fine and that slump was merely just a blip on the radar. As the cheapest of the three top pitchers today, DeGrom is the guy I’m locking in for cash games before anyone other pitcher.
Starting Nine (Stack of the Day): Texas Rangers (vs Miles Mikolas – STL/RHP):
There were a lot of teams that I wanted to put here, but I think the Rangers merit some conversation today so they get the coveted spot. Before we even get into the Rangers, let’s talk a bit about Miles Mikolas. He’s been outstanding over his last three starts with a 1.35 ERA and 0 HR allowed over 20 innings pitched. That’s all well and good, but I don’t think he’s as effective as those numbers would lead us to believe. You see, Mikolas is a far worse pitcher on the road (3.00 ERA and 0.8 HR/9 at home vs 5.14 ERA and 2.1 HR/9 on the road) and this game takes place in one of the best hitting environments in baseball. The Rangers are outstanding at home (6.3 runs per game), and they have some bats who are tearing the cover off the baseball. Logan Forsythe, a Zac Green (@okiecowpoke14) favorite, is batting .563 with 6 XBH over the last week, while Willie Calhoun has started his season with a bang (2 HR, 5 RBI, .500 AVG in two games). They are both massive values on Fanball with Forsythe coming in at $4200 and Calhoun a huge value at $3700 (he’s a must play in both cash and GPP formats at that price). Joey Gallo is slowly learning to hit (despite his 45% K-rate). He has also has walked a ton (about one per game) and is second on the team with a .411 OBP. I am slowly coming around on him as a cash game play, but I still prefer him as a GPP option given his price increase to $7000. Nomar Mazara, Danny Santana, and Rougned Odor have each hit greater than .300 over the last week, with Odor showing some power as well (4 XBH in his last five games). I think Texas lays the wood to Mikolas tonight, and with the value you will get from a Forsythe/Calhoun stack you should have no problem getting Joey Gallo, Jacob Degrom, and a few other big bats onto your team. If we can get a low ownership on top of that (Houston should be really popular once again), then that’s gravy.
Pinch Hitter (HuLo play): Ronny Rodriguez (DET/SS vs Frankie Montas – OAK/RHP)
As you read, I really like a Rangers stack today but the one piece they are missing is a SS with Elvis Andrus on the DL (still won’t call it the IL). I think my play here is to spend down at the position and use those savings to load up on my non-Rangers exposure elsewhere. I don’t know what else Rodriguez has to do to get his price point up. The guy is a high floor, high ceiling type of play but continues to be priced at only $3500. That price point is Orlando Arica territory, while Rodriguez continues to give us Jean Segura production (for comparison’s sake, Segura is $5800 today). Over his last ten games he has 7 XBH and 9 RBI to go along with a .278 AVG. He has scored 10+ Fanball points in three of his last four games, and over 30 Fanball points in three of his last ten games. I’m perfectly comfortable throwing him into both cash and GPP games given his price point.
Riding the Pine (Fade of the Day): Gerrit Cole (HOU/RHP at Boston Red Sox)
There are three studs on the slate and you’re probably going to want to have exposure to one of them in cash games. Not every has an unlimited budget, some at least one of those studs has to be out of your player pool. Clearly, for me, that guy is Gerrit Cole. I have nothing against Cole at all, and he may have the highest upside of any of the three studs, but if you look strictly at matchup he has the hardest one of the three and there’s no point in taking that risk on a 15 game slate with many other options. As I wrote about above, Jacob DeGrom is my top option on the slate given how he’s dominated the Marlins this year. Max Scherzer is making his first start at home in a long while and he’s been outstanding at Nationals Park this year. The Cubs just got mowed down by Luis Castillo, only to have a late flight to the nation’s capitol to face the best pitcher in the National League. That really leaves Cole, and his insane strikeout rate, as the odd man out at a very hitter friendly Fenway Park. In a GPP I’m all over Cole, but if I’m looking for safety in a cash game then I just don’t think I have the room for the risk Cole brings in Boston.
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