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Fanball FAAB – Week 7 Waiver Wire Advice

by • October 16, 2018

Welcome to Fanball FAAB, our weekly analysis of players who may be available on your league’s waiver wire.

Words by Christian Peterson. Rankings and blind bid recommendations by Paul Charchian.

QUARTERBACKS

Mitch Trubisky

Week 6: 22-31, 316 yards, 3 touchdowns passing, 8-47 rushing
Ownership: 33%
Week 7: vs. Patriots

Still owned in just one-third of fantasy leagues, Trubisky should be on rosters as we continue to navigate the bye weeks. Trubisky followed his six touchdown Week 4 outburst with another impressive outing. He’s now completed over 68% of his pass attempts in four straight weeks and, in addition to his passing stats, has rushed for 100 combined yards in his last two games. A possible shootout against the Patriots looms in Week 7.  Charch’s Blind Bidding Recommendation: 20%.  In QB-heavy leagues, 30%.

Baker Mayfield, Browns

Week 6: 22-46, 238 yards, 1 touchdown passing, 2-8 rushing
Ownership: 43%
Week 7: at Buccaneers

Mayfield played his worst game as a pro in Week 6, failing to complete 50% of his passes in a losing effort against the Chargers. The Browns receiving corps is an unhealthy mess right now, but the matchup with the Buccaneers keeps Mayfield on the radar as a streaming option this week. The Bucs have allowed the second-most passing yards and the most passing touchdowns despite playing one fewer game than most other teams.  Charch’s Blind Bidding Recommendation: 20%.  In QB-heavy leagues, 30%.

Sam Darnold, Jets

Week 6: 24-30. 280 yards, 2 touchdowns passing
Ownership: 3%
Week 7: vs. Vikings

Darnold has now tossed five touchdown passes in the last two games, but those performances should be taken with a couple of massive grains of salt. Two weeks ago, he benefitted from a couple of big plays by Robby Anderson and a Broncos defense that couldn’t stop the run, and last week he faced the injury-ravaged Colts secondary. Things get significantly more difficult in the coming weeks with the Vikings and Bears (both top-10 pass defenses) in consecutive weeks. Charch’s Blind Bidding Recommendation: 1%. In QB-heavy leagues, 3%.

Brock Osweiler, Dolphins

No. Just no.

 

RUNNING BACKS

Peyton Barber, Buccaneers

Week 6: 13-82 rushing, 4-24, 1 touchdown receiving
Ownership: 43%
Week 7: vs. Browns

Barber continues to run clearly ahead of rookie Ronald Jones, and he just posted his best game of the season in Week 6, averaging 6.3 yards per carry and accumulating a season-high four receptions while adding a receiving touchdown. Playing the porous Falcons defense will tend to help any runner’s numbers, but Barber has re-established himself as the back to own in Tampa with Jones being worked in very slowly behind him. The Week 7 matchup with the Browns is a juicy one; Cleveland just let Melvin Gordon go for 132 yards and 3 touchdowns, making Gordon the third running back to top 130 rushing yards against them, and also the third back to score multiple touchdowns. Charch’s Blind Bidding Recommendation: 30%.

Frank Gore, Dolphins

Week 6: 15-101 rushing, 1-18 receiving
Ownership: 12%
Week 7: vs. Lions

The impressive Week 6 line is a little deceiving, as Gore played in a near-even split with Kenyan Drake (Drake had one more touch) and did most of his damage in overtime (47 rushing yards). Still, it’s obvious that Gore isn’t going away any time soon, and you can do worse than a back whose floor is 10-12 touches every game, and who theoretically should get opportunities to score – though even that isn’t a guarantee, given that neither Gore nor Drake have a carry inside the 5-yard line and both have two attempts inside the 10. Charch’s Blind Bidding Recommendation: 25%.

Marlon Mack, Colts

Week 6: 12-89 rushing
Ownership: 26%
Week 7: vs. Bills

Mack returned to action for the first time since Week 2, operating as the clear lead back for the Colts and racking up 7.4 yards per carry. His 13 touches were more than twice those of backups Nyheim Hines and Robert Turbin, and at this point there is no reason to believe Mack won’t continue to be the lead dog as long as he stays healthy. The Bills are a middle-of-the-road opponent. They’ve held opposing backs to just 3.8 yards per carry, but they’ve also surrendered seven running back touchdowns in six games. Charch’s Blind Bidding Recommendation: 20%.

Ito Smith, Falcons

Week 6: 11-22 rushing, 1 touchdown rushing
Ownership: 14%
Week 7: vs. Giants

With Devonta Freeman surprisingly hitting IR on Tuesday, Smith suddenly becomes priority No. 1 on the waiver wire this week. The rookie runner hasn’t been great while filling in for Freeman in recent weeks, but he has scored in three straight games and could now be more than just a goal line option – truth be told, Tevin Coleman hasn’t been spectacular as the lead back for the Falcons, so there’s a not-that-far-fetched scenario in which Smith carves out a much larger share of this backfield. The fact that he averaged just 2 yards per carry against the moribund Buccaneers in Week 6 doesn’t bode well for an increased workload, but stranger things have happened. In the near term, the Giants have allowed seven running back scores in six games, so at the very least there’s a chance Ito’s scoring streak continues for another week. Charch’s Blind Bidding Recommendation: 20%.

Doug Martin, Raiders

Week 6: 0-0 rushing, 1-8 receiving
Ownership: 6%
Week 7: bye, then hosting Indy in Week 8

Media reports on Tuesday say that Marshawn Lynch is dealing with a groin injury serious enough to potentially plague him the rest of the season. He’s on bye this week, which helps, but if the reports are true, he’ll need more than a week to get right. Groin injuries are particularly devastating for runners, and any attempt to play through it could worsen the condition. Many people are jumping on Jalen Richard, but we believe that he will retain his role as the team’s third-down back, and Doug Martin would likely turn into the starter. Charch’s Blind Bidding Recommendation: 5%.

Duke Johnson, Browns

Week 6: 2-36 rushing, 4-73 receiving on 5 targets
Ownership: 45%
Week 7: at Buccaneers

Coming off his best game of the season, the criminally under-used Johnson is worth dusting off for a tasty Week 7 matchup with the Bucs. The Browns are almost completely bereft of talent at wide receiver beyond Jarvis Landry, and Baker Mayfield would be well-advised to look Duke’s way more frequently. In 5 games, the Bucs have allowed the following RB receiving lines: Alvin Kamara (9 catches – 112 yards – 1 touchdown), Corey Clement (5-55), James Conner (5-34), Tarik Cohen (7-121-1). Charch’s Blind Bidding Recommendation: 5%.

Raheem Mostert, 49ers

Week 6: 12-87, no receptions, no touchdowns
Ownership: 0%
Week 7: vs. Rams

To the anguish of Alfred Morris owners, Kyle Shanahan used Raheem Mostert as the backup to Matt Breida on Monday night. It was a wise decision. Mostert ran with a level of power and determination Morris hasn’t displayed since his rookie year. It certainly looks like he’s permanently displaced Morris, and finds himself in an enviable spot as a rotational back behind a constantly-injured starter. Charch’s Blind Bidding Recommendation: 5%.

Nick Chubb, Browns

Week 6: 3-25 rushing, zero receptions on the year
Ownership: 22%
Week 7: at Buccaneers

For the second time in three weeks, Browns head coach Hue Jackson has vowed to get Nick Chubb more involved in the offense. His previous edict resulted in the exact same usage for Chubb, so we’ll believe it when we see it.  Chubb has posted either two or three carries in every game this year. But the reason it feels more promising now is because Carlos Hyde has been garbage. He’s topped 3.7 YPC just one time all year, and he’s averaging just 3.4 YPC on the season. Meanwhile, Chubb is averaging a whopping 10.8 YPC. Keep in mind, though, Hue was the guy who was resisted playing another rookie, Baker Mayfield, until he had no choice. Charch’s Blind Bidding Recommendation: 5%.

Rashaad Penny, Seahawks

Week 6: 9-43 rushing, 2-27 receiving
Ownership: 25%
Week 7: bye

The head-scratching game of running back roulette continues in Seattle, where Penny saw his most extensive action of the season while erstwhile waiver wire All-Star Mike Davis got just 7 touches. It’s tough to glean much from Week 6 as most of Penny’s action came during mop-up duty with the Seahawks up big over the Raiders. Still, going into the Week 7 bye there is at least an outside chance that Penny has improved his odds of being a contributor during the second half of the season. Charch’s Blind Bidding Recommendation: 1%.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Marquise Goodwin, 49ers

Week 6: 4-126, 2 touchdowns receiving on 5 targets
Ownership: 44%
Week 7: vs. Rams

Goodwin battled a variety of leg ailments throughout the first five weeks, and also endured the fantasy value-killing injury to Jimmy Garoppolo. Fantasy owners (rightfully) bailed on Goodwin, to the point where he is now owned in less than half of all leagues. Now free from the shackles of your previously high fantasy expectations, Goodwin looked fast and healthy while repeatedly torching a beleaguered Green Bay secondary on Monday night. Stewbeard, Jr. (C.J. Beathard) has now tossed multiple touchdown passes in three straight games, and Goodwin proved he can still take the top off a defense. What’s more, the resurgence couldn’t have come at a better time; this week the 49ers face a Rams secondary that has allowed three 100-yard receivers and 10 wide receiver touchdowns (including two each to Mike Williams, Aldrick Robinson, and David Moore) in the last four games alone. Charch’s Blind Bidding Recommendation: 17%.

Taylor Gabriel, Bears

Week 6: 5-110 receiving on 5 targets
Ownership: 33%
Week 7: vs. Patriots

Gabriel followed up his breakout Week 4 performance (7-104-2) with another 100-yard effort in Week 6. He’s caught every one of the 12 targets tossed his way by Mitch Trubisky and has to be taken seriously at this point. The Bears Week 5 bye likely depressed Gabriel’s ownership, as he’s still available in two-thirds of all fantasy leagues. Up next is the Patriots, who have allowed the sixth-most wide receiver touchdowns to date (9) and who just got torched for three scores by the similarly speedy Tyreek Hill a week ago. Charch’s Blind Bidding Recommendation: 15%.

Chester Rogers, Colts

Week 6: 4-55 receiving on 10 targets
Ownership: 13%
Week 7: vs. Bills

Rogers has been the obvious beneficiary of T.Y. Hilton’s absence and has now been targeted at least 10 times in three straight games. He scored a garbage time touchdown and was comically inefficient with his 10 targets in Week 6, but as one of the only healthy wideouts in a high-volume passing attack, Rogers needs to be owned in PPR formats. Hilton didn’t practice all of last week and is considered week to week with chest and hamstring injuries. Charch’s Blind Bidding Recommendation: 3%

Albert Wilson, Dolphins

Week 6: 6-155, 2 touchdowns receiving on 9 targets
Ownership: 6%
Week 7: vs. Lions

Wilson single-handedly did the impossible in Week 6 – he made Brock Osweiler look like a competent NFL quarterback. Wilson secured touchdown receptions of 43 and 75 yards, going over 100 yards receiving for just the second time in his career. Wilson now has four touchdowns this season and has seen increasing usage in each of the Dolphins last three games. With preseason darling Kenny Stills slumping and Devante Parker a complete non-factor, Wilson has established himself as a vital cog in the Dolphins passing game. That’s not saying much in the grand scheme of things and there will likely be a bidding war that far out-paces Wilson’s true value this week, but if you can snare him for decent value he’ll probably provide the occasional big game in the second half of the season.  He’s startable this week in a favorable matchup with Detroit.  Charch’s Blind Bidding Recommendation: 2%

Cole Beasley, Cowboys

Week 6: 9-101, 2 touchdowns receiving on 11 targets
Ownership: 8%
Week 7: at Redskins

At some point, someone had to catch some passes for the Cowboys. That it happened to be Beasley, and that it happened against the Jaguars, was unexpected. Problem is, Beasley has now used up two of his annual allotment of 4-5 touchdowns, and he’s just as likely to go on another 12-game scoreless streak as not. Anyways, Beasley will always have some appeal in PPR leagues for his possession-receiver tendencies, but don’t expect consistent production.  This week, he draws one of the league’s worst slot corners, Washington’s Fabian Moreau. Charch’s Blind Bidding Recommendation: 2%

Jermaine Kearse, Jets

Week 6: 9-94 receiving on 10 targets
Ownership: 1%
Week 7: vs. Vikings

Quincy Enunwa left Week 6 with an injury that could be the dreaded high ankle sprain. In Enunwa’s stead, Kearse stepped in and promptly saw 10 targets from a suddenly potent Sam Darnold. Just remember that Kearse’s Week 6 breakout came at the expense of the Colts – one of the worst defenses in the NFL. Things won’t be as easy in Week 7 against a Vikings defense that has tightened up since being embarrassed by the Rams a few weeks ago.   Charch’s Blind Bidding Recommendation: 1%

TIGHT ENDS

O.J. Howard, Buccaneers

Week 6: 4-62, 1 touchdown receiving
Ownership: 37%
Week 7: vs. Browns

A surprising game day activation in Week 7, Howard performed admirably just two weeks after suffering a reported sprained MCL. Howard scored and amassed 62 yards on four targets during a shootout with the Falcons, but the most encouraging sign for Howard owners was that Cameron Brate – previously a favorite of Jameis Winston’s – had just one target (although he did score on that target). In any case, Howard has huge upside in a suddenly potent passing attack and should be on far more than 37% of rosters.  Charch’s Blind Bidding Recommendation: 30%, because half your league is looking for tight end help.

C.J. Uzomah, Bengals

Week 6: 6-54 receiving on 7 targets
Ownership: 15%
Week 7: at Chiefs

A repeat on this list from last week, Uzomah continued his ascension as the tight end du jour in Cincinnati in Week 6, amassing 7 targets and cementing his status as a legitimate piece of the Bengals passing attack. Through six weeks, the Bengals Week 7 opponent – the Chiefs – have allowed the most tight end receiving yards in the NFL, including 138 to Jesse James, 79 to George Kittle, 65 to Niles Paul, and 97 to Gronk. Charch’s Blind Bidding Recommendation: 10%