At this point, no price is too high for Tom Brady. Pay whatever we are asking and make concessions elsewhere on your roster. Brady leads the league in passing yardage and touchdowns, which includes 825 yards and eight touchdowns in just the past two weeks. At this point it does not matter what defense is opposing the Patriots offense, though you certainly do not need to sweat a Carolina team that is fresh off giving up 220 yards and three touchdowns to Drew Brees OUTSIDE!
Remember when the Dolphins were courting Brees as a free agent out of San Diego, then spurned him at the altar for Daunte Culpepper? Trees does. He's seen the Phins twice since then and put up 84 points, 711 yards and seven total touchdowns. Not bitter. He'll enjoy seeing them again after facing three formidable defenses and still averaging 280 yards and two TDs per outing. The Dolphins held Josh McCown to 249 yards and a score last week (congratulations) after surrendering 331 yards to Philip Rivers in their opener. Looks like revenge will be a dish best served by Brees again this week.
Football is a game of inches, and Matthew Stafford missed a win and solid fantasy performance by exactly that. Even though Stafford only threw for one touchdown, you have to like that he threw the ball 40+ times for the second time in three weeks. While the Vikings have one of the best corners in the NFL in Xavier Rhodes, Minnesota's secondary has proved beatable just about everywhere else. Through three games, opposing quarterbacks are averaging 287 yards passing and the Vikings have already allowed five touchdowns through the air. Over his last four meetings with Minnesota, Stafford has averaged 248 yards passing and 1.75 touchdowns passes per game.
Welcome to the 2017 season, Russell. Whether it some new beverage hell be hawking to his throngs of followers or something less tangible like this is what Seattle seems to do every season, Wilson and the Seattle offense came to life in Week 3. The 373 passing yards was a career high for Wilson and his four passing touchdowns was just the second time hes hit that number since 2015. Whats the encore look like? The Colts and their 892 passing yards allowed, which is good (or is it bad?) enough for the 3rd-most passing yards through three weeks and have to travel to Seattle where Wilson has thrown eight touchdowns in his last three games at the CLink. Vontae Davis should return for the Colts and Doug Baldwin is dealing with a strained hamstring, which dampens Wilsons outlook just a tad but a little water never seemed to bother Mr. Ciara.
The MVP has been solid but not overwhelming as he toured the NFC North, averaging 289 yards and 1.3 touchdowns per outing. The Bills have yet to surrender a passing score this season, which would be more impressive had they faced a more rigorous test than Cam Newton, Josh McCown and Trevor Siemian. Call it a Super Bowl hangover, call it regression to the mean, call it what you will; after last year, in which Ryan threw multiple scores in 13 of 16 contests, two scores feels like a ceiling against a stout Buffalo secondary.
Do you really need convincing to start Rodgers? What do you need to know? He has topped 300 yards passing in each of his first three games and his touchdown totals have gone up in each game (1-2-3). The Bears have allowed just one touchdown to each QB they've faced this year, which is saying something considering that those games have been against Matt Ryan, Jameis Winston and Ben Roethlisberger. When you have rivalry games, anything is possible, but it has to be a concern that Rodgers, despite his mobility, has been sacked 13 times. The injuries to his offensive line are a legitimate concern, especially on a short week, but who benches Rodgers?
Manning looked like hot garbage for the first 11 quarters of his season, throwing just one touchdown in that span and having less than 240 yards in all three. But, in the fourth quarter against the Eagles, it all seemed to come together and Manning threw three touchdowns in the quarter, finishing with 366 yards ans three TDs. The Bucs have been hit hard by quarterbacks in both of their games, allowing 301 yards and one TD to Mike Glennon and 369 yards and three TDs to Case Keenum. Clearly Manning is a superior quarterback to those two guys, but, with only one good quarter out of 12, it's hard to give Manning a ringing endorsement - even with numbers that would indicate otherwise.
You wouldnt be able to tell from the look on Siemians face following his Challenger-esque return to Earth following his disappointing performance in Week 3, but dont let that damp blanket turn into a wet one with such an attractive matchup in Week 4. Siemian returns to the friendly confines of Mile High where hes rolled up opposing defenses and smoked them to the tune 12 total touchdowns in his last five games at home. The Raiders will do their best to pillage, but like the worlds worst pirates will likely find its their defense getting plundered. Oakland has given up the 3rd-most touchdowns to the position, the 10th-most passing yardsdespite facing just 96 attemptsand are one six remaining teams yet to register an interception.
So much for the NFL being a 'passing league.' The Chargers have an 0-3 record, but also boast a top-6 defense against the pass. This might not bode well this week for Wentz, who struggled against the Giants' highly ranked defense last week (176 yards, 1 TD). On the plus side, of his last six road outings, Wentz has modestly tallied 300 yards passing and/or multiple touchdowns five times.
Cousins (365 yards passing, 3 TDs) was downright surgical in his Week 3 dissection of the Raiders, completing 25 of 30 pass attempts. Will he build upon that success this week against the Chiefs--the NFL's 24th-ranked pass defense? Citing his last seven road outings (or neutral territory), Cousins has tallied 300 yards passing and/or multiple touchdowns six times. But ay the rub: Kansas City has surrendered only two receiving touchdowns for the season.
So far on the season, Cam Newton has a worse passer rating than Brock Osweiler did last year (72.2-69.7). He has looked terrible and is averaging just under 189 yards per game passing. He is playing hurt and one can't help but wonder if The Panthers should have given him the Andrew Luck treatment and waited until he was fully healthy. The Patriots have spent the first three weeks in shootouts allowing 300 yards and multiple touchdowns in every contest. If Cam can't put it together here, it might be time to really worry and stop starting him.
Mariota's 2017 season has been a slow build, with his 225-yard, two-TD effort against the Seahawks last week his best of the season. Despite Houston getting gutted by Tom Brady last week, don't expect things to get easier; the Texans have held visiting AFC South quarterbacks to one or fewer touchdown tosses in five straight and haven't allowed a divisional quarterback to throw for more than 252 yards in Houston since Andrew Luck did so in Week 6 of 2014. That stretch includes a 202-yard, no-TD effort by Mariota last season, his only meeting with the Texans. Check your expectations accordingly.
Rivers loves getting out of the division. He's thrown for 300 yards or multiple touchdowns in each of his last 11 non-AFC West games, averaging a robust 281 and 2 over that span with six 300-yard outings and eight multi-touchdown games. More importantly, he likes throwing the ballan average of 37 pass attempts per game thus far, slightly up from 36 per game last year. Volume gets results against the Eagles: dating back to last year, four of the last six quarterbacks to throw at least 35 passes against Philly have notched multiple touchdowns, averaging 301 yards and two scores per contest. Especially with Melvin Gordon nicked, Rivers will be chucking it on Sundaygood news for those entrusting him with a fantasy lineup spot.
In two full games without David Johnson, Carson Palmer has been asked to carry his offense, and he's responded with 332 and 325 yards. That'll be the case this week as well, because the Cardinals runners stink and the Niners have evolved into a decent run defense, allowing 3.5 yards per carry--that's over a full yard better than last year's putrid run stoppers. Expect another high volume game from Palmer against a pass defense that just allowed a big game to Jared Goff, and allowed Cam Newton to throw his only two touchdowns of the year.
If you eyeball this matchup based off of Week 1, when Smith threw for 368 yards and four TDs against the Patriots while the Redskins were giving up 307 yards and two TDs to Carson Wentz, you're thinking shootout. But Smith has returned to Earth since then, averaging 203 yards and 1.5 touchdowns. And the Redskins are fresh off slamming the door on Derek Carr, giving up an average of 171 passing yards and one TD in two games since the season opener. Both recency (the last two weeks) and primacy (Smith's average fantasy ranking since joining the Chiefs is QB19) favor a less productive outing, though if you're looking for an angle the Redskins allowed the most quarterback rushing touchdowns last season while Smith rushed for a career-best five scores.
It's been a couple of lackluster fantasy games for Jay Cutler so far. But, the stars are aligning for a breakout. Cutler gets his first home game...in as much as Miami has a home field advantage. And he faces a Saints secondary that was manhandled in Weeks 1 and 2. New Orleans ranks 30th against the pass, and cornerbacks Marshon Lattimore and Sterling Moore may not be playing in this game.
After a couple rough outings to launch his career, Watson looked supremely comfortable against the Patriots last week, completing two thirds of his passes for 301 yards and a couple scores and very nearly becoming the first rookie quarterback to best Bill Belichick. Now he'll tangle with a Titans defense that's surrendered 260-plus yards and multiple touchdowns in two of three, with Blake Bortles the only outlier. It's a promising opportunity for the rookie, especially since he already knows how to feed DeAndre Hopkinsand he's averaging 6-115 with four touchdowns over his last five dates with the Titans.
Jared Goff's two solid fantasy performances has come against struggling secondaries, and he gets another one this week, particularly if Dallas cornerbacks Chidobe Awuzie and Nolan Carroll are out again. The Cowboys have allowed six passing touchdowns in the past two games with those guys hurt. Speaking of injuries, watch Sammy Watkins' injury status. Obviously, Goff is an even better start with his No. 1 receiver on the field.
Is Black Bortles--gasp--a legitimate quarterback? His 244-yard, four-TD shredding of the Ravens last week suggests it's not out of the realm of possibility. Are the Jetsgaspa legitimate pass defense? They've held Tyrod Taylor, Derek Carr and Jay Cutler to an average of 225 yards, though they're also giving up two touchdowns per game. You know the Jags want to run the ball, so there's a cap on Bortles' yardage possibilities regardless of opponent. And the four scores is an aberration as well, marking just the second time Bortles topped two TD tosses over the past 20 games. The limits to Bortles' upside and usage doom him to his usual fate as a fantasy afterthought.
You know the deal by now: Ben is never a safe start in road games, where he's averaged just one touchdown pass over the past three years. And particularly in Baltimore, where Ben owns lackluster averages of 248 passing yards and one touchdown over the past four years. The Ravens secondary was just ignominiously scorched by Blake Bortles, but we'll assume it was the jet lag. Or the Scotch eggs. Or the blood pudding.
You want to take away Zeke and force Dak to throw 50 times? He'll throw 50 times, like he did against Denver, and put up a couple scores. You want him to manage the game? He'll throw 18 times, collect a coupe more TD tosses, and rush for a score as well. What will Dallas need against the Rams? More likely the latter, as the Rams are among the easiest defenses to run againstso opponents are attempting fewer than 30 passes per game against them. So it's game flow, not talent, that will be Prescott's biggest foe this week.
There might not be a QB more prone to game flow. The Bucs would prefer to limit Winston to something like the 30 attempts(204 1/0) he had in week one but that requires they lead as they did during the 29-7 drubbing of the Bears. Tampa trailed Minnesota throughout last week, prompting Jameis to 40 attempts in the comeback effort. He threw for 328 yards and two touchdowns but was also picked three times. Additionally, he fumbled twice although neither were lost. The Giants pass defense held Matt Stafford to 122 yards and Carson Wentz to 176 so temper your yardage expectations for Winston for sure. Winston can be useful if the Bucs are trailing and he has to throw but you better have a stomach for the turnovers. He is a game manager when Tampa is ahead.
Suddenly looking very mortal, Carr and the Raider passing offense will get little time to lick their wounds before being tossed right back to the fracas in another tough matchup with Denver in Week 4. The Broncos have surprisingly allowed the second-most passing touchdowns (7) through the first three weeks of the seasona feat that took 10 weeks to reach in 2016but considering Carr hasnt thrown a touchdown against this defense since 2015, its hard to feel anything remotely close to confidence in a Carr start. He could also be without one of his major weapons as Michael Crabtree is reportedly dealing with a chest contusion. Short on production and with ailing weapons, owners should be looking for production elsewhere come Sunday.
If you miss watching RGIII, Kizer is a pretty good analog. There have been plenty of cringe-worthy decisions (7 INTS, 2 fumbles lost) but also a good share of solid play through three weeks. The rushing ability absolutely floats Kizer's value (87 yards, 2 scores) and he should have a good week again as Cincinnati has allowed the most rushing yards to opposing QBs. Deshaun Watson put up a 5/67/1 rushing line and I doubt the Bengals will limit DeShone just because he spells his name a bit different. If you can handle the turnovers, Kizer is not the worst option this week but just don't look for a big passing day with Cincy allowing the 4th fewest passing yards per game.
Fantasy owners can mildly celebrate Dalton's proficiency last week against the Packers (21 of 27 passing for 212 yards and two TDs), knowing the Bengals' offensive-coordinator switch to Bill Lazor has already paid dividends. On the down side, though, Dalton still has two bad streaks to overcome: Seven straight outings without hitting the 300-yard passing mark; and 20 straight games without registering three or more touchdowns. For Week 4, Dalton will encounter a Browns defense which ranks 18th against the pass. What's more, Cleveland has allowed seven touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks--five passing, two rushing.