Charch's Week 14 Quarterback Rankings

RankPlayer
1
NO @TB

After last Thursday's middling effort, this game has "bounce back" written all over it for Drew Brees. You'll recall these teams met in Week 1 when Ryan Fitzpatrick stunned Saints with four touchdowns, and Brees battled back with a massive 439-yard, three touchdown effort of his own. Those numbers are certainly approachable here if the Bucs secondary is missing cornerbacks Brent Grimes, Carlton Davis, and MJ Stewart again this week. Tampa has allowed the most passing touchdowns, including scores in every game. Brees has thrown touchdowns in 25 of 26 career matchups with the Bucs. - Paul Charchian (@PaulCharchian)
Charch's Rating: 10.0/10   -   $7500

2
CIN @LAC

[UPDATE: IT APPEARS THAT BENGALS CORNERBACKS TONY MCRAE AND DRE KIRKPATRICK WILL MISS THE GAME.] Philip Rivers has thrown multiple touchdowns in every game this year and at least one touchdown in 26 straight games. To be clear, "multiple touchdowns" usually means exactly two, a number he's hit in seven of his past eight games. If there's an opponent against whom he can break out of his two-score malaise, it's the Bengals. In half of the Bengals last six games, opponents have thrown three or four touchdowns. Keenan Allen has a juicy matchup from the slot against Darqueze Dennard. Plus, the Bengals have given up the most touchdown passes to opposing runners, and Rivers has good pass-catching options in his backfield. - Paul Charchian (@PaulCharchian)
Charch's Rating: 9.75/10   -   $7300

I frequently talk about Ben Roethlisberger's road inconsistencies, but not this week, not against this opponent. The Raiders have allowed the most passing touchdowns and the most in their own building, 2.6 per game. By comparison, the Vikings give up 0.7 in their home games. And, Ben's road games have been somewhat better this year anyway, with averages of 312 yards (nice) and 1.6 touchdowns (meh). Roethlisberger has awesome weapons in Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster and the Raiders counter with, arguably, the worst set of cornerbacks in the league, Gareon Conley, Nick Nelson, Daryl Worley. - Paul Charchian (@PaulCharchian)
Charch's Rating: 9.5/10   -   $7200

4
ATL @GB

If we remove Josh Rosen, Brock Osweiler and Josh Allen, the Packers are allowing average passing performances of 278 yards and 2.4 passing touchdowns per game, and that sounds just about right for Matt Ryan here. Packers rookie cornerback Jaire Alexander looks really promising, but a matchup with Julio Jones is deeply in Jones' favor. What's more, the rest of Ryan's receivers, Mohamed Sanu and Calvin Ridley, have plus matchups against far worse cornerbacks than Alexander. Ryan has topped 330 passing yards in five of the past seven games, and it's possible that he hits that number here too. - Paul Charchian (@PaulCharchian)
Charch's Rating: 9.5/10   -   $6500

Hey, what's Patrick Mahomes doing way down here? It's a tribute to the Ravens defense that Mahomes takes a rare journey outside of his normal lofty apex atop my rankings. How good are the Ravens? Since Jimmy Smith's return from suspension, the average quarterback line against them is a paltry 195 yards and 1.4 touchdowns. The Ravens secondary doesn't have any glaring exploits - they're solid everywhere. But Mahomes remains a must-start player because the Ravens struggle against tight ends (touchdowns allowed in three straight) and because they don't have an obvious answer for Tyreek Hill. - Paul Charchian (@PaulCharchian)
Charch's Rating: 9.25/10   -   $8000

6

[UPDATE: RT Bryan Bulaga and LG Lane Taylor, along with RG Byron Bell, are inactive. That's three starters. I've moved him down a few spots as a result.] For the first time in his career, Aaron Rodgers will have a new head coach, although not an unfamiliar one. When Rodgers lights up the Falcons, like everyone does, it'll be tempting to credit the Packers decision to change coaches. But you won't fall for it. You know the Falcons rank 25th in passing yards allowed. You know they've allowed 3-4 passing touchdowns in half their games. If Baker Mayfield, Andy Dalton, and Jameis Winston can throw three touchdowns against the Falcons, so can Rodgers. - Paul Charchian (@PaulCharchian)
Charch's Rating: 9.25/10   -   $7000

7
NE @MIA

By his standards, Tom Brady's been ice cold for five weeks, averaging less than one touchdown per game, and failing to finish higher than QB13 in any game. But his malaise ends here. He has thrown a touchdown pass against the Dolphins in 20 straight matchups. What's more, he's thrown 3+ touchdowns in four of the past six meetings, including this year, in Week 4 when he finished with a line of 274 yards and three scores. The Dolphins have allowed multiple passing touchdowns to six of the past seven quarterbacks they've faced, with Sam Darnold as the only exception. - Paul Charchian (@PaulCharchian)
Charch's Rating: 9.25/10   -   $7100

Mitch Trubisky is expected to return as the Bears try to right the ship after an unexpected loss to the Giants. As a reminder, Trubisky was fantasy football's second-highest scoring quarterback from Weeks 4-11, pre-injury. He makes the entire Bears offense better, and he's got plenty of upside against an inconsistent Rams secondary. But, I'll note that the return of Aqib Talib is a major help for the Rams defense. In three full games with Aqib Talib healthy, the Rams allowed an average of 213 passing yards and 0.3 touchdowns. In the non-Talib games, they allowed 291 yards and 2.8 touchdowns. That's the difference between an awful fantasy game and a great fantasy game for a quarterback. - Paul Charchian (@PaulCharchian)
Charch's Rating: 9.0/10   -   $6300

9

[NOTE: JOE FLACCO IS INACTIVE.] How important are rushing yards to a fantasy quarterback? Over Lamar Jackson's three starts, he's scored the fourth-most fantasy points among quarterbacks, despite throwing one touchdown. Granted, Patrick Mahomes and Jared Goff have a bye week in there, but it's still damn impressive. One of these weeks, he's going to throw a couple touchdowns and post a monster game. Maybe this week, considering the seven touchdowns the Chiefs defense has allowed to Jared Goff and Derek Carr over the past two weeks. Oddly, the Chiefs have allowed the fewest quarterback rushing yards, yet the most rushing touchdowns, four. Go figure. One way another, air or ground, Jackson is likely to post a good game. - Paul Charchian (@PaulCharchian)
Charch's Rating: 9.0/10   -   $6600

10

No team has faced worse quarterbacking than the Colts. Here are the last seven starters to face Indy: Cody Kessler, Ryan Tannehill, Marcus Mariota/Blaine Gabbert, Blake Bortles, Derek Carr, Derek Anderson, and Sam Darnold. In those seven guys, they may have faced the league's seven worst passing offenses consecutively. The Colts have faced exactly two competent passers, Deshaun Watson and Tom Brady in Weeks 4 and 5, and they threw for 375 and 341 yards. I see Watson stunning the Colts with a level of passing proficiency they're utterly unaccustomed to. All three of Watson's receivers have plus matchups against the Colts' anonymous trio of Pierre Desir, Kenny Moore II, and Quincy Wilson. - Paul Charchian (@PaulCharchian)
Charch's Rating: 9.0/10   -   $6200

11
LAR @CHI

In games in which Todd Gurley is held to 0-1 touchdowns, Jared Goff makes up the difference, averaging a crazy 353 yards and 3.1 touchdowns per game. That angle is highly relevant this week as the Bears have allowed the fewest rushing touchdowns, just three. The entire Bears pass defense keys off the pressure they create against opposing quarterbacks. But the Rams' offensive line ranks third in pass blocking by Pro Football Focus. What happens if the Bears can't establish regular pressure on Goff? If Goff has more time in the pocket than the Bears are accustomed to, it could expose some weaknesses with the Bears' normally-solid cornerbacks Kyle Fuller, Prince Amukamara, and Bryce Callahan. - Paul Charchian (@PaulCharchian)
Charch's Rating: 9.0/10   -   $7000

12
IND @HOU

After going eight straight games with 3+ touchdowns, could Andrew Luck really post back-to-back zero touchdown games? Going all the way back to Week 5, the Texans are allowing just 0.9 touchdown passes per game. The asterisk on that daunting 0.9 stat are the quarterbacks they've faced over those eight games. I'm not exaggerating when I say Case Keenum is the most accomplished passer they've faced during this stretch. I went back to Week 5 for those stats because in Week 4, the Texans got rocked for four touchdowns and 464 yards. By Andrew Luck. - Paul Charchian (@PaulCharchian)
Charch's Rating: 9.0/10   -   $6900

13
CAR @CLE

Cam Newton is an invincible two-touchdown machine. Need one score? He'll give you two. Need three scores? He'll give you two. In an extraordinary probability anomaly, Newton has thrown exactly two touchdowns in 9 of his last 10 games. Super weird. And two touchdowns is about what the Browns allow per game, 1.7 over their last seven games. So, let's call it a two-touchdown game for Newton, in the least risky prediction of the year. Cleveland has one good cornerback, Denzel Ward, but even if he neutralizes DJ Moore, there's still Devin Funchess, Jarius Wright, and Curtis Samuel to worry about - not to mention Christian McCaffrey. - Paul Charchian (@PaulCharchian)
Charch's Rating: 8.75/10   -   $7100

The best thing about Jameis Winston's two games since being unbenched are his zero interceptions. In theory at least, he's earned enough leeway to avoid being benched mid-game, a fear his fantasy owners have faced in each of his starts. Winston's burgeoning connection with Adam Humphries has helped, and Humphries has a terrific matchup against the worst of the Saints cornerbacks, PJ Williams. The Saints secondary has given up a lot of splashy games, including over 360 yards to three different passers in the last six weeks. The guys who haven't scored multiple touchdowns against the Saints: Tyrod Taylor, Eli Manning, Alex Smith, Dalton/Driskol, and Dak Prescott. Winston can out-sling those guys. - Paul Charchian (@PaulCharchian)
Charch's Rating: 8.75/10   -   $6700

15
NYJ @BUF

Get this: The highest-scoring fantasy quarterback the past two weeks plays for the Buffalo Bills. That's what crazy rushing yards will do, and that's what Josh Allen brings to the table. In the two games since returning from his elbow injury, Allen has posted 224 rushing yards. There are only four running backs who have more rushing yardage over the last two weeks. He remains a highly inaccurate passer, but he's managed to throw three touchdowns over the past two weeks. The Jets will help secure some passing numbers. They've allowed multiple passing touchdowns in eight of the last nine games. - Paul Charchian (@PaulCharchian)
Charch's Rating: 8.75/10   -   $5700

16
MIN @SEA

It's been an underwhelming fantasy season for Kirk Cousins. He's thrown touchdowns in every game, but he's topped two scores just three times, and just once since Week 4. His box scores haven't been explosive, and I don't think that changes here, but he should have a solid game. The Seahawks secondary has slumped over the past six games, allowing per game averages 310 and two touchdowns. More specifically, the Seahawks have allowed exactly two passing touchdowns in six straight games. Cousins' receivers have positive matchups around the field against Seattle's rebuilt secondary. Adam Thielen is far better than slot corner Justin Coleman, and Stef Diggs is far better than rookie Shaquill Griffin, who has allowed touchdowns in back-to-back games. - Paul Charchian (@PaulCharchian)
Charch's Rating: 8.75/10   -   $6800

17

After allowing multiple passing touchdowns in 10 of the past 11 games, Carolina fired secondary coach Jeff Imamura on Monday. Unfortunately, they can't fire their secondary. James Bradberry has been inconsistent, while Captain Munnerlyn and Donte Jackson have been downright bad. The schedule makers blessed Baker Mayfield with a lot of struggling secondaries (TB, Atl, Cin, and KC in the last six games), and he's performed well against those teams, averaging 247 yards and 2.8 touchdowns. I know Jarvis Landry has been excruciating for his owners, but Mayfield should be able to exploit a great matchup against Munnerlyn. - Paul Charchian (@PaulCharchian)
Charch's Rating: 8.5/10   -   $5900

18
PHI @DAL

Dak Prescott played his best game of the season when these teams met a month ago in Philadelphia, but that game only netted Prescott two touchdowns, one via the ground. And that's the omnipresent problem with Prescott's fantasy fortunes, they fall directly on his legs. In any week without a rushing touchdown, Prescott averages as QB22. For some perspective on QB22, that's Blake Bortles in my league's scoring system. In a week when he scores a rushing touchdown, he vaults to QB8, on average. So, will he score a rushing touchdown? They're almost impossible to predict, and the Eagles have only allowed two quarterback rushing scores all year. But mobile quarterbacks like Cam Newton, Blake Bortles and Marcus Mariota all topped 43 rushing yards. So, he's got a chance. - Paul Charchian (@PaulCharchian)
Charch's Rating: 8.75/10   -   $6400

19

When healthy, the Vikings defense is no joke. Aside from a meltdown game against the Rams back in Week 4, the Vikings are allowing 230 passing yard and 0.9 passing touchdowns per game. Four of the past five quarterbacks to face the Vikings haven't topped 199 yards. I started this discussion with "when healthy", because the Vikings are dealing with injuries to their starting cornerbacks, Xavier Rhodes and Trae Waynes. Neither finished the game last week, so you'll want to keep your eyes peeled for their practice participation this week. For his part, Russell Wilson has been terrific with multiple touchdowns in every game but one, including 3+ scores in half his starts. - Paul Charchian (@PaulCharchian)
Charch's Rating: 8.5/10   -   $7200

20
NYG @WAS
21
PHI @DAL

Unlike last year, Carson Wentz hasn't posted explosive numbers. Last year, he had four four-touchdown games. This year, none. And it's hard to see a big game coming this week against the surging Dallas secondary. Wentz hosted the Cowboys four games ago and posted his best fantasy game of the year, 360 yards and two scores. But since then, Dallas has held Matt Ryan and Drew Brees to one-touchdown games. I love that Golden Tate is finally properly involved in the offense, which gives me some hope. But, it still feels like a modest game is in the works. - Paul Charchian (@PaulCharchian)
Charch's Rating: 8.25/10   -   $6000

22
DEN @SF
23
DET @ARI
24
25
26
27
NYG @WAS
28
PIT @OAK
29
CIN @LAC
30
DEN @SF